Analysis 03-30-2023


Putin and Xi declare the end of the American Empire


The key result of the Xi-Putin meeting was a series of articles declaring the end of the unipolar world controlled by the US and the beginning of a multi-polar world with China and Russian taking the top spots.

In a piece written by Putin in a Chinese publication, he advocated, “The shaping of a more just multipolar world order based on international law rather than certain rules’ serving the needs of the ‘golden billion.’”

“We can feel the geopolitical landscape in the outside world change dramatically,” Putin continued.

In an article written by Chinese leader Xi in the Russian media, he wrote, “the world today is going through profound changes, unseen in a century…The prevailing trends of world multi-polarity, economic globalization, and greater democracy in international relations are irreversible.”

Xi also wrote about the historically close relations between Russia and China in the recent past.

In an open challenge to American dominance, Xi wrote, “The international community has recognized that no country is superior to others, no model of governance is universal, and no single country should dictate the international order.”

Russia and China see an inevitable move to a multi-polar movement where China and Russia have a greater say in international affairs.

The best example of a successful, balanced world order was that coming out of the Congress of Vienna after the defeat of Napoleon.  It prevented a major European war for 100 years.  And it created a robust balance of power in Europe where no one saw a need for a major war.

Ironically, a doctoral dissertation on the Congress of Vienna was written by a young Harvard candidate for a doctorate, which focused on the balance of power coming out of the congress.  His name was Henry Kissinger and the principles outlined would guide American foreign policy for decades.

Rather than focusing on winning the peace and punishing France after the Napoleonic Wars, the leading foreign ministers of the era knew that a balance of power included recognizing the interests of France as well as the nations that allied themselves against Napoleon.  This included being willing to negotiate with Napoleon if that was the will of the French people.

Russia was a major player in the Congress of Vienna and establishing the post Napoleonic new world order.  The Russian Czar Alexander I directed his own diplomacy in Vienna.  Austria, Prussia, Russia, and Great Britain were the major players and reserved the major decisions for themselves.  Defeated France was later included and had an influence in determining the borders for all the nations north of the Alps.

The results were so good, that the only major war fought in the next 100 years was the Franco-Prussian War in 1870 -1871.

China wasn’t represented as they saw themselves as the “Middle Kingdom” and above other nations.

The Congress of Vienna was successful because 30 nations participated, but the critical negotiations were handled by the key powers, much like the permanent members of the UN Security Council represents the nations who have more influence in the world.

The vision outlined by Russia and China stresses a multipolar world.  Both countries are challenging Us influence in all continents, they are forging political and economic ties with many countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America.

The one strength for both Russia and China are the move towards a gold backed currency.  America has abused the privilege of having the world currency and there is serious talk about pricing many commodities – possibly even oil, in gold.  As many powerful nations have discovered, a sound currency is critical in both war and peace.

Creating a new world order that has Russia and China at the top will be difficult.  The closest Russia came to it was after WWII, when the USSR had captured most of Eastern Europe and had a large military powered by American Lend Lease.  But cracks started to appear as the captive nations like Hungary protested the USSR.  Even though Russia managed to quell the protests; just 20 years after the Czechoslovakian protests, the Berlin Wall fell.  Russia and China may talk about all nations being treated equally, but ethnic differences will collapse this new world order just as effectively as ethnic differences spelled doom for the Soviet Empire.

The reality is that the articles and statements made by China and Russia are more than political rhetoric. But the goal is to paint the United States, with a senile president, as in its decline.  The implication is that other nations should rally around the new coalition of China and Russia.

Many experts in Washington are worried that what will threaten the US isn’t the military power of Xi and Putin, but the growing fissures in American society.