Analysis 11-07-2022


Who is going to win the Senate in 2022?


It’s pretty much a given that the US House of Representatives will be won by the Republicans in November.  However, it’s the race for control of the US Senate that has everyone’s attention.

Currently, the US Senate is tied with both Republicans and Democrats holding 50 seats each.  Vice President Harris votes in case of a tie, which gives the Democrats the edge.

The Democrats also have an edge as only 14 Democrat seats are up for election, while 21 Republican seats are up for election.

Does that mean the Democrats are going to keep control of the Senate?

Probably not.  But there are no guarantees.

Although nothing is sure in politics, one nearly solid rule is that the party in power in the White House will lose in the midterm elections.

That, and the fact that the polls are showing that the Republicans are taking the lead in many races in these last few days, indicates that the Senate probably will go Republican in a little over a week.

It’s not just the Republicans that believe that.  Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer (D, NY) was caught on a hot mike on Thursday telling Biden that chances are slim for Democrats in the Senate.

Why is control of the Senate so important?  It is the Senate that confirms many of the decision makers in government like judges, cabinet members, military officers, and other senior members of the administration.  If the Republicans control the Senate, many people requiring Senate confirmation might not be confirmed because their politics might not be liked by Republicans.

The Senate also has an important role should Biden die or resigns because he is unable to continue as president.  Then the 25th Amendment of the US Constitution handles the transition of power.  If Biden dies or resigns, VP Harris becomes president, and it is her job to nominate a new Vice President.

Picking a new Vice President while the Senate is under Republican control would be harder than if the Senate were under Democratic control.

Right now, the tide is going against the Democrats.  As proof, just watch where the money is going.

Florida is considered a swing state, but the Republican senator Rubio is ahead, and the Democrats are conceding the state and moving advertising money to Washington State, which is usually considered a solid Democrat Senate seat.  They are also sending money to Colorado, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona – all previously considered leaning Democratic

Another sign of Democratic problems is where the President and Vice President are visiting in the last few days before the election.  Traditionally, the President and Vice President go to swing states in the final days before the election.  However, the VP is going to traditional Democratic areas to solidify support instead of going to swing states.  Biden or the First lady is going to Democratic New York, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico in order to turn out the Democratic base.


Senate seats to watch

Pennsylvania.  Many election models are now giving the Republicans the edge in capturing the Senate.  If that happens, the reason will be the collapse of the Fetterman campaign in Pennsylvania.

Republican Senator Toomey was retiring so it was seen as a possible pickup by the Democrats.

The ticket also favored the Democrats.  The Democratic candidate was John Fetterman, who is the current Lieutenant governor of the State and won that position with 58% of the vote.  The Republican candidate was Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor without any political experience.  Oz did have former President Trump’s support.

The chemistry of the election changed in May, when Fetterman had a stroke that kept him off the campaign trail for weeks.  Instead of withdrawing from the campaign and allowing the Democratic Party to pick a new candidate, Fetterman remained in the race.

It soon became obvious that Fetterman was still recovering from the stroke, including an inability sometimes to understand people speaking to him.

The Fetterman – OZ debate showed Fetterman’s stroke weaknesses and post-debate polling showed a strong movement towards OZ.  The only question is if there were enough early ballots for Fetterman to offset the current OZ advantage.



Those who though that Arizona was now a Democratic state with Biden’s close win there in 2020 appear to be wrong.  The Republican candidate for governor is Kari Lake is ahead by double digits and is frequently described as a “female Donald Trump.”

This makes freshman Democratic Senator Mark Kelly very vulnerable.  Although he was a Navy pilot and a Space Shuttle pilot, he lacks luster.  He is also anti-gun in a state that ranks first in firearm enthusiam.

Kelly is running against Blake Masters, who was a venture capitalist who is supported by billionaire Thiel.  Masters is gaining ground less from his own campaign and more from the rising Republican tide.

Despite Thiel’s support of Masters, Kelly is outspending Masters by a 10 – 1 margin.  Kelly is receiving last minute money from the Democrats concerned about losing the Arizona seat

This should be an easy win for Kelley, but currently the polls show he is statistically tied with Masters.



This is a traditional Republican state that went for Biden in 2020.  The Senate seat is currently held by Democratic Senator Warnock.  Warnock is the senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church, where Dr. Martin Luther King once served as pastor.

In a state where college football is a passion, Republican candidate Herschel Walker has positive name recognition, despite facing a controversy about his position on abortion rights. He was a former star running back for the University of Georgia, a Hall of Fame football player, and represented the US in the 1992 Olympics.  In addition to owning a food company, Walker is a friend of Trump, who has endorsed him, been a major donor, and has campaigned for Walker frequently in the last few months.

Probably the most telling statement on how the Georgia Senate race is going is the “hot mike” statement by Senator Schumer to Biden.  He told the President, “The state where we are going down is Georgia.”



Nevada is normally a Democratic state thanks to Las Vegas.  The rest of the state is Rural Republican territory.  However, migration from other states in the last few years, especially California, has narrowed the margins between Republicans and Democrats.  Unaffiliated voters are the largest voter group in Nevada now.

Biden won Nevada by 2.4%

While the Nevada economy is in terrible shape, Democratic Senator Cortez Masto has focused on abortion rights.

Republican candidate Laxalt is focusing his campaign on inflation, which is hurting the working-class voters.

The Democrats should retain this seat but could lose it in a Republican tidal wave.



It was once said that “As Ohio goes, so goes the nation.”   Today, however, Ohio is trending Republican as the large cities that were once the bedrock of the Ohio Democratic Party are losing voters.

The seat is currently held by Republican Senator Portman, who is not running for reelection.

Democratic candidate Ryan is currently a Democratic representative from Ohio.  His focus is on blue collar issues and restoring the Ohio industrial base.

The Republican candidate is J.D. Vance, who was a Marine from 2003 to 2007.  He is a former venture capitalist and has been endorsed by Trump.

Recently, Ohio has voted Republican by 5 points or more.  However, if economic issues can help Democrats, this may be the state to count on.

If these states are going to help the Democrats, the polls need to reverse course soon.  A USA Today poll showed Republicans with a 4-point lead over Democrats in a generic ballot.  This figure has also been confirmed by a New York Times poll.

Inflation is the key concern and voters see Republicans as best to handle inflation.

Although things can turn around, the “smart/ bet” money is on the GOP winning the Senate next week.