Analysis 11-20-2023

ANALYSIS

The 2024 Presidential Election

 

It’s a year until the US presidential election and it’s time to look at the election.

The conventional wisdom held that the 2024 election would be straight forward.  The Democratic National Committee had cleared the primary calendar so that pro-Biden states would go first and give Biden an easy road to the nomination.

The experts saw a difficult time for Trump.  There were over a dozen Republicans running for president and between a raft of legal problems and qualified candidates running against him, including the popular governor of Florida, Trump would have a difficult time being nominated.

The experts saw an easy win for Biden in November 2024 over a divided GOP.

They were wrong.  Biden is losing support across the board, including usually reliable minority like Arab Americans and Muslim Americans and women voters.  He is behind in key battleground states and would lose if the election were held today.

Meanwhile, the legal attacks on Trump are only convincing voters that the legal system is corrupt and solidifying his support.  His primary opponents are lucky if they get percentages in double digits.  Even his former Vice President, Pence, has pulled out of the race.

 

What happened?

For Biden, there are two issues – dementia and corruption.

Biden’s mental abilities are going down rapidly.  He is frequently lost on stage and can’t find his way off the stage without help.  His answers to questions are frequently vague and mumbled.  This week, Biden called Chinese president Xi a dictator, while answering questions about US Chinese relations. it is diplomatically crass to call a visiting president a dictator at a diplomatic event.

In a more diplomatic tone, China called the comment “extremely wrong.”

The other issue is corruption.  Although there is no chance that Biden will be impeached and convicted, the corrosive release of illegal activities by Biden and his family is hurting his electability.

The Democratic leadership is worried.  A New York Times poll taken last week shows Trump leading in 5 critical battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.  Of course, the poll is a year in advance of the election, and much can change.

Other answers were also concerning.  Trump leads Biden 48% to 45% nationally.  62% say Biden doesn’t have the mental sharpness to be president and 72% say he is too old to be president.

59% of those polled in swing states disapproved of the job Biden is doing as president.  54% said Trump is mentally sharp.  Likely voters said trump would do better on the economy, national security, and immigration.

David Axelrod, the chief strategist for Obama, said the poll “will send tremors of doubt through party.”

Although the Democratic leadership may want Biden to pull out of the race, that is nearly impossible unless Biden agrees.  The primaries have been set up by the Democratic National Committee to give Biden an easy nomination win.  And, without any strong competition for the presidential nomination, polls show Biden getting over 70% of the likely Democratic primary voters.  Since unelected super delegates aren’t allowed to vote in the first ballot, they can’t impact the nomination if Biden has already gathered 51% of the delegates going into the convention.

Biden did make a vague comment about California Governor Newsom being qualified for being president.  He said Newsom, “Could have the job I’m looking for.”  But, as eye raising as the comment was, mentally weak Biden has frequently made misstatements.

Newsom shouldn’t get too excited.  A Fox poll this week showed Newsome behind Trump 49% to 45%.  Trump also led VP Harris (50%-45%) and Michigan Governor Whitmer (48%-46%).

It comes down to the DNC versus the Biden group and the Biden group will not want Biden to become a weak lame duck.  To resign or announce that Biden will not run for reelection means the Biden handlers will lose their power.  For instance, First Lady Jill Biden will not have any power when Biden loses the presidency or announces he will not run for reelection.  Better to keep the power of the presidency until January 20, 2025.

Any bribery will not continue for Biden or his family once he is a lame duck or is out of the White House.

The DNC could use VP Harris to invoke the 25th Amendment to become acting president, but that will have no impact on the nomination and could cause an internal split in the Democratic Party.  Besides, the GOP members in Congress may support Biden just to weaken the Democrats.

As it stands, Biden has clear sailing to the nomination.   However, short of a major shift in voter perceptions, the General Election will be a disappointment for him.

 

Trump

Despite a raft of legal problems, it looks like Trump will win the nomination and stands a good chance to win the While House in November.

The Democrats’’ mistake was swamping Trump with a raft of legal obstacles rather than focusing on one strong case.  By instituting several court cases in Democratic jurisdictions, they have convinced many voters that the current legal system is corrupt and needs repair.

One anti-Trump strategy was to accuse Trump of being an insurrectionist and therefore ineligible to run for federal office.  However, two state supreme courts (Michigan and Wisconsin) have ruled that Trump can be on the ballot.

Trump’s best strategy is to continue his trips across the country.  Likely, these trials will drag on for months.  If convicted, he will obviously appeal.  Some Democrats may want to put him into jail during the appeal, but that will only help Trump win.

Trump will have to name a vice president for the ticket.  Kari Lake had been considered as many consider her to be a “female Trump.”  However, she is running for the senate and is considered a good chance to flip the seat to Republican.

Ex TV host Tucker Carlson is thought by many to be an excellent choice for Trump’s VP position.  He is an excellent speaker, and his political philosophy generally matches Trump’s.

However, Trump has months to decide on his VP.

If Trump wins in November by a narrow electoral vote margin, but loses the popular vote, expect legal challenges to his taking office.  Don’t be surprised if there are mass demonstrations at the Capitol and White House just as there have been massive demonstrations in support of Hamas and Palestine recently.  If the case goes to the Supreme Court, expect demonstrations at the Supreme Court and the justices’ houses.

Could this get out of hand if one wins the popular vote and the other wins the electoral vote?  Yes.  Just look at what happened with the election of 1860.

There were interesting similarities with the 2024 election.  The incumbent President Buchanan was accused of rigging elections by buying votes.  In addition to this corruption, there was the issue of immigration.  And there was the emotional issue of slavery.  Stephen Douglas, who was running under the split Democratic ticket, said a Republican win would split the nation apart.

Lincoln won the election with a majority of electoral votes, but only 39.9% of the popular vote.  The Democrats were split between Stephen Douglas and VP John Breckinridge.

While Breckinridge won the south (Lincoln wasn’t even on the ballot in the South), Lincoln took the Northeast.  Douglas and Bell split border states.

Stephen Douglas was right.

Like 1860, feelings are running high, and riots are a strong possibility.

The aftermath of the 2024 election could be more important than the election itself.