Center for American and Arab Studies

What are they getting, how are they going to use them, and will they help?

In the last week, the political logjam that prevented the sending of tanks to Ukraine seemed to break up. Britain is sending Challenger IIs, Germany is sending Leopard 2s, France is sending AMX 10s, and the US is sending M1 Abrams tanks. Additionally, Germany has agreed to allow other countries using the Leopard 2 to send them to Ukraine.

Two factors seemed to help bring about the agreement – Ukraine’s aggressive move against corruption amongst high ranked officials and the jointly timed agreements by the US and Germany to send some of their tanks.

But many questions remain about Ukraine’s ability to push the Russians back.  And, there is the growing concern about escalation – even up to nuclear war.

New Shipments

The critical shipments are Main Battle Tanks (MBT) which are expected to dominate the older Russian tanks.  The other shipments are Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV) which allows infantry to keep pace with the fast moving tanks, dismount to carry out missions the tanks can’t do, and provide covering fire for dismounted infantry.

CHALLENGER II.  This British tank is one of the best in the world and the British were the first nation to promise to deliver tanks.  It has highly advanced armor that is still a secret even after three decades.  It also has advanced optics and communications to target the enemy.  Britain has promised a dozen tanks (a squadron).

The biggest weakness is that only a dozen are being sent to Ukraine and Britain has few Challenger IIs to allow it to send a sizable number to turn the tide against the Russians.  They however are sending other equipment to equip the armored unit.

AMX 10 RC.  The French are sending a light tank clone.  Unlike a tank, it runs on wheels instead of treads.  It uses 105 mm ammunition which is unique to the French.  It can’t defeat an MBT, but can destroy lighter medium tanks.  However, it is fast on roads and is designed for reconnaissance.  Unfortunately, it is slow on the muddy type of terrain that may be found in Ukraine.

The French are moving to a newer tank design, so this tank will become obsolete.  The French are intending to send about a dozen.

M1 Abrams Tank.  This American tank was designed for a war between NATO and the Soviet Union, so it makes for a good fit in the Ukraine War.  31 are being sent, which will make up a battalion.  It is powered by a gas turbine, which can use kerosene, and various jet fuels.  It has excellent optics, thermal imaging, and stabilization so it can fire even while moving.  It uses the same secret armor that the British Challenger II uses.

Many consider the Abrams to be the best tank in the world.

The downside is that it requires lots of maintenance and a qualified mechanic requires three months of training, although the tank crew can learn their job in a month.  It requires a good logistics system to remain combat ready.

Another problem is that the US will not be sending tanks from its prepositioned reserves in Europe, which means that it will take several months to field them in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s allies are also sending Infantry Fighting Vehicles.

M2 Bradley.  This American IFV was designed in the 1980s, although it has been modernized many times.  However, the US is retiring the Bradley, so the US may be sending many more in the future.

The Bradley was designed to withstand the radiation of tactical nuclear warfare.  Its armor was designed to defeat the cannon of the Soviet BMP, which was its probable opponent at the time.

It carries the TOW anti-tank missile, which can defeat Russian tank armor.  It also has a 20mm chain cannon which can penetrate the armor of lighter armored vehicles.

The US is sending 50 M1 Bradleys to Ukraine and current video of these vehicles on trains indicates that some of them may very well be in Ukraine already.

Marder.  This is a German IFV.  It was designed to operate with the German Leopard tank and has the same level of protection and mobility as the Leopard 2.

Germany has 390 Marders in service and many more in storage.  They have indicated that they will give 40 to the Ukrainians.  Since the Germans consider them a defensive weapon, they haven’t had as many political problems as exporting the Leopard II to Ukraine.

Leopard II.  The future of Ukraine’s rearmament program this year depends on the Leopard II.  Like the American M1 Abrams and British Challenger II, it is considered a world class MBT.  And, since there are 3,600 built and there are over 2,000 in various European countries, it promises the number of tanks that would dramatically change the balance of power in Ukraine.

Now that Germany has authorized sending this tank to Ukraine, several European countries (plus Canada) have promised over 100 tanks to create 2 to 4 Leopard battalions.

Training

Much has been made of the time it would take to train tank crews.  However, depending on the level of training, the time can take as little as 4 weeks or as long as several months.  However, American officers who have worked with the Ukrainians say the Ukrainians are fast learners.

Basic training for a tank crew can take as little as a month.  This includes classes on operating the vehicle, using the cannon, and basic tactics.  The problem is that this doesn’t teach crews to operate in conjunction with other tank crews at the company or battalion level.  This requires additional training and training exercises up to the battalion level.

If Ukraine intends to train its forces in battalion or brigade level maneuvers, the time goes up exponentially, although the ability of the tank crews also increases exponentially.

If Ukraine intends to create new units and field all the tanks, IFVs, artillery, logistical support vehicles, engineers, etc. as a cohesive combat team, it will take months.

Doctrine

One reason that training a large unit takes time is that the NATO countries are teaching Ukrainians the doctrine of combined arms.  Combined Arms Operations use combinations of infantry, mobile firepower, offensive and defensive fire, engineers, and aviation assets to defeat the enemy.

This is something the Russians haven’t been able to master.  They tend to use tanks, artillery, and infantry separately, which is inefficient because no single arm of the military can decisively defeat a determined defender.  An example was the fighting north of Kiev, where the Russian advance was bogged down in the Pripyat Marshes because they had to rely on armored vehicles travelling down a single hard top road.  Infantry covering the flanks on foot would have made the drive more successful.

As new tanks and IFVs are delivered to Ukraine, they will have to be integrated into new units that can carry out combined arms operations.

The number of MBTs and IFVs will impact how the equipment is used and deployed.  For instance, the British Challenger II tank unit is too small for frontline service.  It will probably become a mobile reserve in the north of Ukraine.

The American Abrams tank won’t be operational until the tanks are delivered in several months.  Until then, American equipment will be limited to a mechanized infantry role using the Bradley IFV.  The Bradleys could operate independently against infantry and Russian IFVs like the BMP.  One Bradley tactic is to dismount the soldiers from four Bradleys and then move the vehicles to an oversight position where they can cover the infantry with its 20mm chain gun and anti-tank missiles.  The Bradleys also use a hunter-killer team of one tank and three Bradleys.

The future of the Ukrainian offensive against the Russians depends on the Leopard 2.  Two to four Leopard 2 Brigades, along with IFVs like the Marder or Bradley could have a serious impact.  The tracked tanks and IFVs could cut through the muddy terrain of Zaporizhia to the Sea of Azov.  This would cut off the land bridge to Crimea. This type of offensive would be ideal for vehicles like the Bradley or Marder.  They would cover the flanks of the tanks and be able to dismount their infantry if there are tactical obstacles slowing down the armor.

The key to winning this war is for the Ukrainians to capture or seriously threaten Crimea.  The promised armored vehicles could help Ukraine to do that. But Russian are threatening to attack these new shipments on route, time will tell if the Russians succeed in destroying or damaging the shipments before reaching the battle front.

Has the Biden secret documents affair reached critical mass?  It seems so.

Biden’s approval numbers, which had started inching up are now back down into the high 30% range.

The media, which has given some of Biden’s behavior a pass, are starting to ask serious questions that are upsetting the president even though there is no threat that he will be impeached.  He snapped at a reporter on Thursday, saying that this line of inquiry was beginning to “bug” him.  He added that he “had no regrets.”

Eventually, he will have regrets.  Not only has he given Republicans plenty of political ammunition, but the affair also gives more visibility to the Hunter Biden influence peddling issue.

In addition, Biden has stopped the Democrats from attacking Trump on the issue of keeping classified documents.  The fact is that Democrats are anxious to bury this issue, even if it lets Trump off.

What is the Law on Classified Documents?

Generally, there are three levels of classified documents: Confidential, Secret, and Top Secret.  However, some agencies have additional levels of classified documents.  There is also a difference between agencies of what definition there is for each level of classification.

The lowest classification is “confidential. It is defined as information that would “damage” national security if disclosed.

The next highest level is “secret,” which is defined as causing “serious damage” to national security if disclosed.

The highest level is “top secret”, which is defined as causing exceptionally grave damage to national security if disclosed.

The problem is deciding what fits into each category and who should have these classifications.  As of 2019, 1.25 million individuals have a top secret clearance, even though few of those people will need that level of clearance.

Although no one knows for sure, about 50 million documents are classified each year.  Most are national security documents.

No one knows how many documents are classified because there is no central depository for these documents.

So, who oversees classifying and declassifying documents?  It is the president, who as head of the executive branch and Commander-in-Chief of the military has sole authority.  He may designate some of his authority to others like the National Archives, but the courts have made it clear in several rulings that the sole authority in the Executive branch of the government resides in the president.

Where does that leave the Vice President?  Nowhere.  Constitutionally, the Vice President is not part of the Executive Branch.  His only Constitutionally authorized job is President of the Senate – a legislative function.  He has no other authority unless the president is dead or declared unable to hold office.

The Vice President has no authority to hold classified documents or to declassify them.  He has no authority to demand that the president confide classified information to the Vice President.

An excellent example of this was the secret of the atom bomb during WWII.  Until Franklin Roosevelt died, Vice President Truman was unaware that the US had built an atomic bomb.  It was only after becoming president that he was let in on the top-secret project.

Although Obama could allow Biden to read and keep classified documents in his secure office, Biden was Constitutionally unable to classify or declassify documents – unless authorized by Obama.  And any authority granted by Obama to Biden ceased at noon January 20^th 2017.

This clearly leaves Biden in jeopardy.  He had no authority to hold those documents, especially in unsecured places like his home.  Meanwhile Trump had the authority to declassify any documents he wanted until Noon January 20, 2021.

The National Archive may claim that it is the authority on classifying, but constitutionally, that authority resides in the office of the president and has only been granted to the Archives and can be withdrawn if the president so desires.

So, What Happens Now?

Clearly, the Department of Justice will find its hands tied in this case.  Biden appointed Attorney General Garland is politically limited.  He can’t indict Trump with Biden’s behavior ignored.  There’s also the possibility that the courts would find for Trump.

The biggest problem for the Department of Justice and the FBI is the growing perception that there are two types of justice – one for the elites and one for the public.  While Trump’s home was raided by the FBI, the DoJ wouldn’t allow FBI agents to look at the Biden documents in question.  Voters have noticed that, and it is damaging the reputation of the FBI.  In fact, it is so serious that there are calls by some Republicans in Congress to abolish the FBI.

Who benefits the most?  This is where the theories come.  There is a solid argument that some Democrats worried about Biden’s mental health and likelihood of losing the presidency in 2024 want to sully his reputation so another candidate will win the nomination and the election.

Unfortunately, the Democrats don’t have a plausible alternative.  VP Harris is considered incompetent to be president and other alternative options like Bernie Sanders are too old.  California Governor Newsome may seem too radical for Middle America and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is fumbling his duties as seen in the recent airline snafu.  Other potential candidates who would normally announce in the coming months will be forced to hold back.

On the Republican side, Trump comes out looking better.  The documents issue seems to be a case of “everyone else is doing it.”  The FBI raid on Trump’s place shrinks in importance as is clear that the FBI gave Biden preferential treatment and is now trying to justify not using the FBI as they did with Trump and his home.

There will also be questions about Hunter Biden and the FBI hiding evidence of his influence peddling.

Rest assured that the Republican House of Representative will keep the classified documents issue alive and tie it into the behavior of Hunter Biden.

China, which already has problems with its relations with the US, will find itself trying to justify the location of some of the classified documents in the Biden Think Tank, which was funded to a large part by the Chinese.

This affair has weakened Biden and he knows it.  Not only has this benefitted his likely opponent, Trump, he now has a Republican House majority to deal with.  And, probably worse of all, the once friendly media is asking questions.

Tipping points in a presidency are to be feared.  For Nixon, it was the release of the oval Office tapes.  For Carter, it was the Iranian Hostage Crisis.

This week is the halfway point of the Biden presidency.  If he can’t turn things around, this affair can not only impact his domestic agenda, but also how other countries like Russia and China view him.

Usually voting for the Speaker of the House is exciting as watching paint dry.

Not this time.  The vote went 15 rounds; something that hadn’t happened in a century. However, it didn’t go as long as the 1855 speaker vote which went 133 ballots and took two months.

Although much of the focus by the media looked at the 20 Republican holdouts that forced the 15 ballots and the split in the party, the changes forced on new Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy were ones that were favored by most of the Republican caucus.  The difference was that many Republican congressmen didn’t want to hold the House speakership hostage to the rules changes that were proposed.

The concern of the 20 holdouts was the movement of the Congress from its Constitutional role.  In the role laid out in the US Constitution, it was to be a deliberating group that had the primary role in passing the government budget as well as other laws.

That role had disappeared.  Changes in the House Rules virtually eliminated debate.  Legislation was basically crafted by the House leadership – primarily by the Speaker of the House.  Votes by the House of Representatives were perfunctory.  Congressmen didn’t have time to read the proposed legislation and amendments weren’t allowed.  The result was massive bills totaling thousands of pages that no one could understand.  Pet projects could be snuck in without anyone questioning them.  This process also kept the legislation from becoming public until it had passed.

The result was a burgeoning budget deficit and a national debt of over $30 trillion.

But House leadership on both sides liked these rules, especially former Speaker Pelosi, who didn’t tolerate public debate and dissent.  And it was the 20 Republican congressmen that decided to hold out their vote for McCarthy that decided it was time to change the rules.

One of the rule changes was one that gave Speaker Pelosi more power by making it harder to make a motion to vacate the chair – a parliamentary way to control a speaker who was trying to force legislation that wasn’t favored by the House as a whole.  Now the new rule allows one House member to make a motion to vacate the chair.

Although a motion to vacate the chair would probably not pass, it is a tool that keeps a speaker in line with the wishes of the majority.

One of the biggest problems with the legislative process today is that massive spending bills are moved to the floor of the House without giving members a chance to study them.  The Republicans wanted 72 hours to study the bill before a vote.  They also wanted to eliminate the omnibus bills and separate the funding of the government into over a dozen separate bills.

In addition to separating the appropriations bills, the new rules give House members the chance to propose amendments to bills that had gone through committee and were now on the floor for debate.

Republican congressmen also wanted major changes in budget and tax procedures.  They wanted a three-fifths super majority for any increases in tax rates.  They also wanted the Congressional budget office to analyze a bill’s impact on inflation.

One rule that kept congressmen from being held accountable for increasing the debt was the Gephardt Rule that automatically increased the national debt when a budget resolution was passed.

The House also voted this week to rescind over $70 billion to the Internal Revenue Service that was to hire 87,000 IRS agents.  Although the bill is expected to die in the Senate, it will likely show up in the 2024 IRS budget legislation, where it will likely pass both the Senate and House.

Political ramifications

There is a saying that “What goes around comes around.”  And this Republican majority congress will use some of the same legislative and investigative tools that Pelosi did.

One of the first changes is that the files of the January 6^th investigative committee will be made public, especially 14,000 hours of Capitol riot video that the House Democrats didn’t want to release.

One new subcommittee is the Weaponization of the Federal Government.  Polls show that a majority of American voters think the FBI is a tool of the White House to punish its enemies.  This subcommittee will be modeled like the Church Committee that investigated the illegal actions taken by the Central Intelligence Agency.

The Church Committee discovered that the CIA was partnering with telecommunications companies to monitor Americans on CIA watch lists – something that the FBI is being accused of today.

This new committee will likely also look at suspicious FBI actions as well as harassment of conservatives by the IRS.  Other targets are Homeland Security, the NSA, the Department of Justice, the ATF, and the CDC.

Congressman Cole told his fellow House members, “Similar to the situation that confronted America in the 1970s, in recent years we have witnessed abuses of the civil liberties of American citizens committed by the executive branch…Often for political purposes.”

Cole continued, “The American people deserve to have confidence in their government…And they deserve to know that they will not be labeled a domestic terrorist for advocating for their children in front of a school board.”

Democrats were in opposition.  Democrat Representative Jerry Nadler said, “this is a violation of separation of powers and it’s also very dangerous.”

Congressman Jordan will be chairing the committee.  There will be 9 Republicans and 6 Democrats on the Committee.  The members will be appointed by Speaker McCarthy, just as Pelosi picked the members of the January 6^th committee.

In the last few years, Pelosi used her power to strip some Republican congressmen of their committee assignments.  Now it seems that McCarthy will return the favor by booting Representatives Adam Schiff, Eric Swalwell, and IIhan Omar from their committees.

Schiff and Swalwell are one the Intelligence Committee and Omar is on the Foreign Affairs subcommittee.

McCarthy said, “Swalwell can’t get a security clearance in the private sector,” referring to Swalwell’s affair with a Chinese spy.  “It’s not like it’s anything new…Remember, this is Nancy Pelosi, this is the type of Congress she wanted to have.”

Although the new rules are set for this Congress, the future of the rules is cloudy.  The Republican majority is tenuous and a Democratic majority in the future is likely to make changes that would better suit a strong Democratic Speaker of the House.

If, however, the Republicans can maintain their majority in Congress, the new rules may have a longer life.