Center for American and Arab Studies

The Afghan War in 2013: Volume III – Security and the ANSF
By Anthony Cordesman
Center for Strategic and International Studies

March 27, 2013

Transition poses many challenges. Afghanistan is still at war and will probably be at war long after 2014. At the same time, the coming cuts in International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) forces and cuts in military and civil aid, along with the country’s fractious politics and insecurity, will interact with a wide range of additional factors that threaten to derail Transition: Afghanistan’s internal political dynamics and the weakness and corruption of Afghan governance mixed with growing de facto power of regional and ethnic power brokers. The difficulties of making a Transition to a non-Karzai government in 2014, as ethnic, regional, and sectarian power-struggles threaten to dominate elections and further divide the government. The difficulties in creating an effective mix of Afghan forces to replace US and other ISAF forces. A steady decrease in US and allied resolve to sustain high levels of spending, advising efforts, and partnering after 2014. Read more

The Syrian Opposition’s Very Provisional Government
By Yezid Sayigh
Carnegie Endowment

March 28, 2013

The Syrian National Coalition of Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (National Coalition) formally took up Syria’s seat in the Arab League this week. The outgoing chairman of the coalition, Moaz al-Khatib, who had announced his resignation only days before, represented the coalition, and the provisional prime minister, Ghassan Hitto, sat behind him. This recognition is an important diplomatic gain. But it will prove ephemeral unless the National Coalition and its provisional government can follow up speedily by delivering effective administration, basic services, dispute resolution, and security in the liberated areas, which it claims now extend over 100,000 square kilometers and include 10 million inhabitants.

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Lebanon Imperiled as Prime Minister Resigns Under Duress
By Paul Salem
Carnegie Endowment

March 23, 2013

The resignation of Lebanon’s prime minister, Najib Mikati, was the result of intensifying pressure between the pro-Assad and anti-Assad camps in Lebanon and the region. At a minimum, it ushers in a period of further drift and weakening of the country’s political and security institutions. At worst, it might herald a serious entry of the Syrian conflict into Lebanon, a showdown between the country’s factions, and challenges to its basic constitutional order. Lebanon’s leaders and foreign friends should recognize the depth of the peril and work to find a way forward to form a new government, appoint a new, effective head of the internal security forces, and hold fresh parliamentary elections.

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The Meaning and Consequences of Israel’s Apology to Turkey
By Caroline Glick
Center for Security Policy

March 26, 2013

US President Barack Obama was on the line when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to apologize for the deaths of nine Turkish protesters aboard the Turkish ship Mavi Marmara on May 31, 2010. For those who don’t remember, the Mavi Marmara was a Turkish ship that set sail in a bid to break Israel’s lawful maritime blockade of Hamas-controlled Gaza’s coastline. When Israeli naval commandos boarded the ship to interdict it, passengers on deck attacked them – in breach of international maritime law. Soldiers were stabbed, bludgeoned and thrown overboard. In a misguided attempt to show the good faith of Israeli actions, the naval commandos were sent aboard the ship armed with paintball guns. As a consequence, the soldiers were hard-pressed to defend themselves. In the hand-to-hand combat that ensued, nine of the Turkish attackers were killed.

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The Free Syrian Army
By Elizabeth O’Bagy
Institute for the Study of War

March 2013

Fragmentation and disorganization have plagued Syria’s armed opposition since peaceful protestors took up arms in December 2011 and began forming rebel groups under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army. A lack of unity has made cooperation and coordination difficult on the battlefield and has limited the effectiveness of rebel operations. Since the summer of 2012, rebel commanders on the ground in Syria have begun to coordinate tactically in order to plan operations and combine resources. This cooperation has facilitated many important offensives and rebels have taken control of the majority of the eastern portion of the country, overrunning their first provincial capital in March 2013 with the capture of al-Raqqa city. However, rebels have been unable to capitalize on these successes, and fighting has largely stalemated along current battle fronts particularly in the key areas of Aleppo, Homs and Damascus.

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Youth Activism in the Small Gulf States
By Lori Plotkin Boghardt
Washington Institute
March 28, 2013

Policy Watch 2059

Youths have been key drivers of revolutions across the Middle East since the beginning of the Arab uprisings in early 2011. For example, one recent study indicates that more than half of the protestors in the Egyptian revolution were between the ages of 18 and 30. Although young activists have not sparked similarly dramatic change in the small states along the Persian Gulf’s western littoral — Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman — they will likely play an important role in structural reform and therefore merit more attention from both Washington and their own governments. Increasingly muscular youth movements carry important implications regarding the extent of potential change in the Gulf, as already seen in fits and starts in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. Like their counterparts in other Arab states, young Gulf activists tend to pursue political agendas that are more far-reaching than those of traditional opposition elements and older generations. Yet they generally call for legislative, judicial, and other structural reforms rather than all-out revolution.

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Yemen’s National Dialogue and al-Qaeda

Daniel Green

Washington Institute

March 26, 2013

The National Dialogue Conference launched in Sana on March 18 will give Yemen an opportunity to pursue fundamental reforms over the next several months. Yet it also gives the United States an opening to help leading figures in the process focus on comprehensively defeating al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Meeting that goal will require a nuanced reform effort that aligns the state’s interests with those of the tribes and other groups that have tolerated or supported al-Qaeda in the past.

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/yemens-national-dialogue-and-al-qaeda

Arms for Syria’s Rebels: Shaping the War’s Outcome

Jeffrey White

Washington Institute

March 25, 2013

Military assistance can make Syrian rebel forces more effective, help shape the post-Assad period for Syria, and increase influence and access for the donor.

On March 25, the New York Times reported that the CIA has been helping Arab governments and Turkey sharply increase their military aid to the Syrian opposition in recent months, expanding the “secret airlift of arms and equipment.” Indeed, arming the rebels with suitable weapons and providing them with appropriate training and advice can hasten the collapse of the regime, shape the endgame, and give the United States and its allies some influence on the ground after the Bashar al-Assad regime is swept away.

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/arms-for-syrias-rebels-shaping-the-wars-outcome

Initial Outcomes of Obama’s Middle East Trip

By David Makovsky and Robert Satloff

Washington Institute

March 23, 2013

Video

During his recent Middle East visit, President Obama forged an emotional connection with the people of Israel, earned credibility to deal with Iran’s nuclear research, and put the Israeli-Palestinian peace process back on the regional agenda, according to Washington Institute Executive Director Dr. Robert Satloff and David Makovsky, the Institute’s Ziegler Distinguished Fellow and director of its Project on the Middle East Peace Process. In these videos, the experts discuss the president’s reception in Israel and the West Bank, and assess the likely policy implications of the trip.

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Obama Helps Restart Talks Between Israel & Turkey

By Dan Arbell

Brookings Institution

March 22, 2013

Israel apologized to Turkey today for the May 2010 incident on board the Mavi Marmara naval vessel, part of a flotilla to Gaza, in which nine Turks were killed from Israel Defense Forces fire. The apology came during a 30-minute telephone conversation between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, orchestrated by President Barack Obama, who was ending his 3 day visit to Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Erdogan accepted the Israeli apology, and the leaders agreed to begin a normalization process between Israel and Turkey, following the past three years, when relations were practically at a standstill. (Last December, I wrote about the beginnings of a Turkey-Israeli rapprochement, and discussed more of the policy implications here).

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BRICS Leadership Will Be Tested by Syria

By: Salman Shaikh

Brookings Institution

03.25.13

The humanitarian tragedy unfolding in Syria is probably the most serious crisis facing the world today. And yet, the international community is struggling to find a way forward. With more than four million Syrians in need of humanitarian assistance and three million internally displaced – a conservative UN estimate based on surveys of 6 out of 14 governorates in Syria – the humanitarian response to the plight of civilians so far has been entirely inadequate. A recent UNICEF report highlighted the two million children maimed, orphaned, and suffering from malnutrition as a result of the conflict – an entire generation “scarred for life”. Meanwhile, over one million refugees are seeking asylum in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan. This number will likely hit the three million mark by the end of 2013 – a ticking bomb for countries based on delicate social, ethnic, and sectarian balance.

http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/03/25-brics-syria-shaikh

The Real Reason Putin Supports Assad

By: Fiona Hill

March 25, 2013

Brookings Institution

Few issues better illustrate the limits of the Obama administration’s “reset” with Russia than the crisis in Syria. For more than a year, the United States has tried, and failed, to work with Russia to find a solution to end the violence. Moscow has firmly opposed international intervention to remove Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from power, arguing that the conflict must be resolved through negotiations and that Assad must be included in any transitional arrangement leading to a new government.

http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/03/25-reason-putin-supports-assad-hill

Chechen Commander Forms ‘Army of Emigrants,’ Integrates Syrian Groups

By: Bill Roggio

Foundation for Defense of Democracies

28th March 2013

A commander from the Russian Caucasus known as Abu Omar al Chechen has formed Jaish al-Muhajireen wa Ansar, or Army of the Emigrants and Helpers, and integrated several Syrian fighting units into the ranks. Abu Omar was the commander of the Muhajireen Brigade, which fights alongside al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, the Al Nusrah Front.

The creation of the Army of the Emigrants and Helpers was announced on March 26 by Kavkaz Center, a propaganda arm of the Islamic Caucasus Emirate, an al Qaeda-linked jihadist group in Russia’s Caucasus.

http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/chechen-commander-forms-army-of-emigrants-integrates-syrian-groups/

Latest IMU Capture Indicates Resiliency of Terror Group in Afghanistan

By: Patrick Megahan

26th March 2013

FDD

Yesterday, Afghan and Coalition forces captured a commander from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan during yet another operation in the Kunduz district of Kunduz province. The International Security Assistance Force reported that the captured leader “is alleged to lead a cell of insurgent fighters responsible for improvised explosive device and direct fire attacks on Afghan and Coalition forces” and that before his arrest “he was believed actively planning to assassinate an Afghan National Security Forces official.”

http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/latest-imu-capture-indicates-resiliency-of-terror-group-in-afghanistan/

Springtime for Salafists

By: Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

26th March 2013

Foundation for Defense of Democracies

In mid-March, a 19-year-old Tunisian activist named Amina Tyler posted several topless photographs of herself on Facebook. In one pose, the dark-haired Amina is set against a black background, wearing lipstick and eye shadow. She cradles a cigarette in her left hand and stares off camera, with the words “My body is my own and not the source of anyone’s honor” written in Arabic across her naked chest. In another iconic photo, Amina stands before a white tile background. Gone is the heavy makeup from the first photograph, and she stares directly into the camera, both of her middle fingers raised. The phrase “Fuck Your Morals” is scrawled on her body in English.

http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/springtime-for-salafists/

How Iraq’s Future May be Shaped by its Neighbors

By:Yoel Guzansky, Gallia Lindenstrauss

Foreign Policy Research Institute

March 2013

Since the last American soldiers left Iraq more than a year ago, the fear of rising Iranian influence in the country has become more pronounced. This fear that Iran may fill the vacuum left by the United States has prompted Turkey and several Arab states to clarify their position vis-à-vis Iraq in an attempt to counterbalance Iran’s influence.

http://www.fpri.org/articles/2013/03/how-iraqs-future-may-be-shaped-its-neighbors

Obama’s Mideast trip changes nothing

By:John R. Bolton

AEI

March 26, 2013

President Obama’s trip to Israel and Jordan last week had two widely divergent objectives. Publicly, he wanted to repair the political damage he has suffered from his frosty relationships with Israel and its leaders. On substantive policy, by contrast, officials on both sides believed that Obama intended, in his private meetings, to continue relentlessly pressuring Israel for more concessions to the Palestinians and to refrain from using military force against Iran’s nuclear-weapons program.

http://www.aei.org/article/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/middle-east-and-north-africa/os-mideast-trip-changes-nothing/

Why Sanctions On Iran Aren’t Working

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

By: Bijan Khajehpour, Reza Marashi, & Trita Parsi

NIAC

Washington DC – Sanctions have so far failed to affect the Iranian government’s nuclear policy and are unlikely to do so in the future given the perceptions and calculations of the Iranian elite, according to a new report by the National Iranian American Council (NIAC).

“Never Give In and Never Give Up” [pdf] studies the impact of sanctions on Tehran’s nuclear calculus and identifies the factors that have enabled the Iranian government to sustain its policy, despite mounting economic pressure.

http://www.niacouncil.org/site/News2?page=NewsArticle&id=9077&security=1&news_iv_ctrl=-1

Now Obama Needs to Pressure Turkey

By: Jonathan Schanzer, Emanuele Ottolenghi

Foundation of Defense of Democracies

March 27, 2013

In a surprise development on Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued an apology to Turkish Prime Minister Yayyip Erdoğan over the ill-fated May 2010 flotilla conflict on the high seas between Israeli commandos and Turkish-backed activists seeking to break the Israeli blockade of Gaza.

http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/now-obama-needs-to-pressure-turkey/

Stay out of Other Nations’ Civil Wars

By Doug Bandow

March 27, 2013.

CATO Institute

The long-standing Syrian dictatorship is an abomination. The ongoing Syrian civil war is a tragedy. America should stay out.

A decade ago another administration began another war with a promise of enshrining Pax Americana on the Euphrates. Unfortunately, the result was a wrecked Iraq, empowered Iran, and discredited America. With the decade-long attempt to implant liberal democracy in Afghanistan finally coming to a close, Washington should reject proposals for another unnecessary war of choice.

http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/stay-out-other-nations-civil-wars

Palestinian Refugees in a Changing Middle East
By: Hon. Filippo Grandi, Commissioner-General of UNRWA (Video)
March 5, 2013

http://www.mei.edu/events/palestinian-refugees-changing-middle-east

The Rise and Fall of Iran in Arab Muslims Eyes- – New Polls
By: James Zogby(video)
March 5,2013
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the-rise-fall-iran-arab-and-muslim-eyes-new-poll
http://www.aaiusa.org/page/-/Images/Polls/LookingAtIranPoll3_5_13.pdf

Netanyahu Forced to Rethink His Coalition
By: David Makovsky
March 5, 2013

For the first time since Israel’s January 22 election, the probable contours of a new government led by incumbent Binyamin Netanyahu are finally coming into view. This weekend, President Shimon Peres granted him the maximal two-week extension to shape a new coalition, moving the legal deadline to March 16. It now seems increasingly likely that Netanyahu’s Likud Party will form a coalition with the election’s two most significant success stories: the center-left Yesh Atid (“There Is a Future”) Party of journalist Yair Lapid and the far-right Jewish Home Party of Naftali Bennett.

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/netanyahu-forced-to-rethink-his-coalition

Turkey Rising?
Soner Cagaptay
Washington Institute of Near East Policy
March 4, 2013

Turkey has come a long way in the past decade, but it still has a long way to go. Over the short term, the country’s destiny will be contingent on two interrelated dynamics: the Syrian conflict, and Turkey’s economic momentum.

Phenomenal economic growth has elevated Turkey to the ranks of the G-20, and the country has set its sights on becoming one of the ten largest global economies by the time the republic celebrates its centennial in 2023. Turkey is now the largest and wealthiest Muslim country in the world, and for the first time since the decline of the Ottoman Empire, the Turks have incomes on a par with European incomes.

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/turkey-rising

Leaving in 2014
By Frederick W. Kagan
March 5, 2013

President Obama is about to make the worst mistake of the Afghan war, it seems. He appears ready to announce that the United States will keep fewer than 10,000 troops in the country after 2014, a decision tantamount to abandoning Afghanistan and America’s interests in South Asia.

The president and his advisors seem to have persuaded themselves that the situation in Afghanistan is fundamentally benign (which is odd, since most Americans think that the situation is hopeless).

http://www.criticalthreats.org/afghanistan/kagan-leaving-2014-march-5-2013

Hagel at the Helm
China-U.S Focus
By Richard Weitz

March 5, 2013
Senator Chuck Hagel was recently sworn in as the 24th U.S. Secretary of Defense. He has a tough job ahead of him. Unlike his predecessor, Leon Panetta, Hagel did not receive a 100-to-0 vote in his confirmation vote. Rather his 58 affirmative votes, with 41 against, were the lowest in history due to hurt feelings among his fellow Republicans that Hagel had been a disloyal carrier of their agenda. He also faces major regional security challenges in Asia and beyond. But perhaps Hagel’s most serious challenge lies in his budget battles at home.

http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=9519

End the Arab Boycott of Israel
By: Ed Husain, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
March 6, 2013

On Jerusalem’s ancient walls hung old fans that made a rattling, windy noise. There was no money for air-conditioning. The carpet for worshipers was old and ragged. I was inside one of the world’s most significant buildings, but scaffolding and clutter prevented me from seeing the center of the Dome of the Rock.

http://www.cfr.org/middle-east/end-arab-boycott-israel/p30155

Libya’s Peaceful Anniversary Shows Potential for Stability, Success
By: by Rania Swadek
March 7, 2013

The anniversary of Libya’s revolution was preceded by weeks of apprehension, planning, tension, and concern, not only by international observers, but also by the Libyan government, Libyan civil society organizations, and average citizens on the street.

Airlines canceled flights in and out of the country, international organizations pulled staff and postponed programing, and government officials visited “high-risk” regions such as Benghazi to reassure the populace of their commitment and to ease fears that citizens would be marginalized and abandoned in the aftermath of the revolution.

http://www.usip.org/publications/libya-s-peaceful-anniversary-shows-potential-stability-success

Kerry Offers More Aid but Still Lacks Sound Strategy on Syria
By James Phillips
Heritage Foundation
February 28, 2013

Secretary of State John Kerry has embarked on his first official trip abroad, traveling to the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Although NATO and European issues have been featured prominently in Kerry’s early stops, much of his agenda will focus on containing the destabilizing spillover effects of the intensifying Syrian civil war. Kerry’s trip has been billed as a listening tour, and the new Secretary of State has already received an earful of complaints about the shortcomings of the Obama Administration’s Syria policy from Syrian opposition leaders and U.S. allies concerned about the Administration’s passive “leading from behind” approach to Syria’s worsening crisis. Kerry’s challenge will be to chart a more effective course for salvaging a stable post-Assad Syria that does not threaten U.S. national interests and those of U.S. allies.

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Challenges and Opportunities in the CENTCOM AOR
By Anthony Cordesman
Center for Strategic and International Studies
March 4, 2013

The US needs to comprehensively reexamine its strategy and force posture in the USCENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR). America faces multiple challenges with a fiscally constrained environment at home, and a demanding mix of rising strategic concerns across Asia and the Middle East. This requires a level of strategic triage where the US does not overcommit its resources, as well as a new emphasis on cooperative security efforts with both traditional allies and emerging regional partners. The US must shift away from a focus on terrorism per se to the much broader mix of threats posed by Islamic extremism and the struggles within the Islamic world. These no longer are driven by Al Qa’ida central, or by terrorism. They involve civil conflicts, insurgencies, symmetric warfare, and uncertain mixes of state and non-state actors. They are driven by struggles between more secular and more religious elements, struggles between Sunni factions, and struggles between Sunnis and Shi’ites.

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Holder, drones, and due process
By John Yoo
American Enterprise Institute
March 6, 2013

In his latest misstep, Attorney General Eric Holder is refusing to rule out the possibility of using armed drones against American citizens within the United States. According to a letter he sent to Senator Rand Paul, as Charles C. W. Cooke noted, Holder said that the use of lethal force would be “entirely hypothetical, unlikely to occur, and one we hope no president will ever have to confront,” but might be necessary to stop a “catastrophic attack” like the December 7, 1941, or September 11, 2001, attacks on the homeland. Holder may have the right idea, but because of his misunderstanding of the law and his political tin ear, he is only frightening the American people — though this seems to be the administration’s preferred approach to politics these days.

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Turning Afghanistan Over to Criminals
By Sarah Chayes
Carnegie Endowment
March 5, 2013
Foreign Policy

U.S. policy toward Afghanistan has been crippled by profound flaws since the decision to intervene was made in the wake the 9/11 attacks. Most flaws stem from a view of the mission that remained consistently — across both George W. Bush’s and Barack Obama’s administrations — constrained to combating the immediate violent manifestations of extremism: terrorist actions, or plans to conduct them, against U.S. interests. With that focus on symptoms trumping all other considerations, U.S. policy ironically fanned the flames of the very extremism it was supposedly trying to counter. It succeeded in driving a country that was desperate to be rid of Taliban rule back into the Taliban’s arms, because the alternative, for many Afghans, was not a lot better. And it is leaving behind a region even more laden with extremist currents, and more volatile and unstable, than it was in 2001.

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Freedom and Bread Go Together
By Marwan Muasher
Carnegie Endowment
March 1, 2013

IMF’s Finance and Development

As Arab countries face dire economic challenges, it is easy to forget that not long ago many of them were in a similar—or worse—position. If the region is to successfully tackle unemployment, encourage foreign investment, and foster economic growth, leaders must take lessons from the recent past.­ These lessons offer five rules for success. Economic reforms cannot succeed in isolation, but must go hand in hand with political transitions. They must benefit all segments of society and have buy-in from everyone. They should be quantifiable based on a clear goal. Finally, plans for economic reform must be communicated effectively.

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The Assad Regime: From Counterinsurgency To Civil War
By Joseph Holliday
Institute for the Study of War – March 2013

The conflict in Syria transitioned from an insurgency to a civil war during the summer of 2012. For the first year of the conflict, Bashar al-Assad relied on his father’s counterinsurgency approach; however, Bashar al-Assad’s campaign failed to put down the 2011 revolution and accelerated the descent into civil war. This report seeks to explain how the Assad regime lost its counterinsurgency campaign, but remains well situated to fight a protracted civil war against Syria’s opposition. Hafez al-Assad subdued the Muslim Brotherhood uprising in the early 1980s through a counterinsurgency campaign that relied on three strategies for generating and employing military force: carefully selecting and deploying the most trusted military units, raising pro-regime militias, and using those forces to clear insurgents out of major urban areas and then hold them with a heavy garrison of troops. Bashar al-Assad attempted unsuccessfully to employ the same strategy in 2011-2012.

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U.S. Push Could End Hezbollah’s Domination of Lebanon
By Evelyn Gordon
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs

February 28, 2013

When massive protests forced Syria to withdraw its forces from Lebanon in 2005, it seemed that Lebanon had finally been liberated from foreign domination. But the liberation proved illusory: The country remained in thrall to Hezbollah, which took its orders from Iran and Syria. Hezbollah’s dominance was dramatically demonstrated in 2008, when it staged an armed takeover of Beirut to keep the government from dismantling its telecommunications network and ending its control of airport security. The resulting “reconciliation” agreement granted it veto power over all government decisions.

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Washington Institute on Near East Policy

By: Patrick Carlson

February 20, 2013

During the chaotic days of Iran’s Islamic revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the country’s emerging “supreme leader,” assured Iranians that their supposed oppressor, the United States, would not be able to put the hated shah back on his throne. “America can’t do a damn thing against us,” he inveighed, a winning line that became the uprising’s unofficial slogan. It’s a catchphrase Iran has deployed time and again since, most recently in a taunting billboard along the Iran-Iraq border and in a banner hung in front of a captured American drone (though hilariously, in the latter case, the hapless banner-makers mistranslated the phrase as “America Can Do No Wrong”).

Council on Foreign Relations

February 21, 2013

Daily News Brief

At least thirty-five people were killed when a car bomb exploded near the headquarters of Syria’s ruling Baath party and the Russian embassy in the center of Damascus on Thursday. Rebels have tried to push the front lines of fighting to central Damascus, which has been relatively insulated so far from the civil war, and the latest bombings and the recent mortar attacks suggest they may be shifting to guerrilla tactics to destabilize the seat of Assad’s power. The attack comes as the opposition Syrian National Coalition met in Cairo and said it was willing to negotiate a peace deal to end the conflict with the condition that any peace deal must be under the auspices of the United States and Russia.

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By David Goldman

Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs

February 15, 2013

The possibility of state failure in Egypt is now widely discussed in the foreign policy community. Largely ignored by major media for most of the past two years, Egypt’s economic crisis now commands the attention of foreign policy analysts. In a JINSA Analysis published January 30, ” Failure IS an Option in Egypt,” I argued that the structural deficiencies of Egypt’s economy are so deep and intractable that state failure may not be avoidable.  The consensus view is that the international community has no choice but to circle the wagons around the Morsi government and double down its bet on the Muslim Brotherhood.

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By Matthew Levitt

Washington Institute

February 15, 2013

Hezbollah has long stockpiled weapons in Syria, and the Assad government has long provided some of these weapons to Hezbollah. In addition, Iran has often supplied weapons to Hezbollah through Syria. As events in Syria turn worse for the Bashar al-Assad regime, Hezbollah is going to — as we’ve already seen — try to move as much of its weapons to safer ground as possible. Some of its stockpiles [are] in Lebanon where it has dug caves into mountains.  Both sides of this conflict, the more radical Sunni extremists embedded with the rebels and the Shiite extremists aligned with Hezbollah and Iran, are setting up militias who will be loyal to them after the fall of the Assad regime. What we’re seeing is the stockpiling of weapons for that second phase of conflict.

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By Mark Jacobson

German Marshall Fund

February 20, 2013

Some senior diplomats have called Afghan President Hamid Karzai the most difficult leader the United States has dealt with in modern times. In fairness, Afghanistan itself may be one of the most complex and unforgiving political environments any leader can ever have to deal with. And deal with him they must. Since 2010 when, at a NATO summit in Lisbon, Portugal, Karzai expressed the collective wish of the Afghan people for self-reliance, the United States and our allies have been moving toward Afghanistan, taking the lead on security. Both sides understood that this transition was neither going to be easy – nor completed – without disagreements about approach.

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By Joseph Holliday

Institute for the Study of War

Feb 15, 2013

Current estimates of Syrian opposition strength have generated confidence that the Assad regime will be defeated militarily. This assessment cannot be made without also estimating the real fighting power of the Syrian regime. The regime’s military strength rests on many factors, such as the loyalty of troops, the status of equipment, and the number of casualties sustained. These variables have no meaning, however, if not compared to a valid baseline. This paper establishes the composition of the Syrian Army, provides insight into the historical roles of particular units, and assesses the doctrinal order of battle of the Syrian Army as it existed in 2011.

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By Derek S. Reveron

Foreign Policy Research Institute

February 2013

E Note

With dozens of treaty allies and a strategic priority of promoting the sovereignty of weak states, the U.S. military has been gradually shifting from a force designed for confrontation to one intended to promote international cooperation. To be sure, the U.S. military retains a technical and doctrinal advantage as a warfighting entity. However, over the past two decades, the military has been incorporating new organizations, doctrine, and training to prioritize efforts to prevent war through security force assistance. This has shifted focus to weak states where sub-national (e.g., gangs in Central America) and trans-national security challenges (e.g., al-Qa’ida) jeopardize sovereignty and regional stability.  Consequently, countries such as the Philippines, Georgia, Colombia, Uganda, and Pakistan have requested security assistance from the United States. While level of support varies, U.S. forces are enabling partner countries to combat challenges that threaten their own stability.

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