Center for American and Arab Studies

To listen to the news reports, the NATO summit was a disaster, with fighting between NATO partners on subjects ranging from Ukraine membership to supplying more ammunition to Ukrainian forces.

Despite displayed differences, NATO is much stronger than it was four years ago.  There is no longer any serious debate on the need for NATO.  Countries that never met the goal of using 2% of GDP for defense spending are now exceeding their goals.  Even more positive, two formerly neutral nations, Finland, and Sweden, are either joining or on the cusp of joining.

Weaker NATO nations like Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, who couldn’t stop a Russian invasion of their territory on their own, now have combat ready brigades from other NATO nations “in country” and ready to fight.

On the negative side, the question is when Ukraine should join NATO and how much ammunition and weapons are being used by Ukraine.

As it stands, Ukraine is somewhat closer to joining NATO than before.  The US and Germany remain the major blocks.

As it is, Ukraine has achieved special status with NATO and now has bilateral defense agreements with each of the G-7 nations.  Ukraine President Zelensky didn’t get all the weapons he wanted but remember that this mirrors the situation in early WWII, when British Prime Minister Churchill had problems receiving desperately needed weapons from FDR and the United States.

Unlike Churchill, however, Zelensky berated the NATO nations, which hurt his cause, if anything.

The major victory for NATO was Turkey’s agreement that Sweden should be allowed in NATO after months of dithering.  In return, Turkey does want NATO nations to push for Turkish membership in the EU, a goal that was forgotten as Turkey and Erdoganstarted to cut back on human rights.

As we mentioned frequently when discussing Turkish and Russian relations, these two nations have a long history of fighting each other.  Claims about who should have the greatest political influence in regions around the two nations continue to this day in Syria and Kurdistan.  By supporting Sweden’s membership in NATO, membership in the EU, and releasing Ukraine Azov regiment commanders, Erdogan has provided Putin some political setbacks at a time when the Russian president is most vulnerable.

Turkey is also showing that it is willing to use Turkish Navy warships to escort civilian grain ships in the Black Sea – a clear challenge to Russia’s assumed control of that inland sea.

In another sign that Turkey’s foreign relations are taking a pro-Western turn, Turkey and Greece have announced that they will meet to discuss the issues that separate them.   To prove the new relationship, Erdogan and the Greek Prime minister posed for photos at the NATO summit.

Of course, Turkey will receive tangible benefits.  There is already discussion about selling modern F-16s to Turkey.  And Turkey wants to rejoin the F-35 project, which it was forced to leave after buying the Russian S-400 air defense system.

It isn’t just Sweden, Greece, and Turkey that are forgetting past offensives.  Ukraine and Poland have a long-term disagreement from WWII, over the Ukrainian Insurgent Army and its massacre of the ethnic Polish minority – an issue that Russia tries to bring up to keep tensions between Poland and Ukraine high.

This last week Polish President Duda and Ukraine President Zelensky came together to remember the innocent victims.  It’s just a start, but it shows how the Russian attack has brought European nations together.

Ammunition

After Biden’s gaffe of mentioning America’s shortage of artillery ammunition, several nations noted how they are helping with production of new weapons and munitions factories.

The US has recently opened a new ammunition plant – the first contractor owned ammunition plant to start operations since the end of the Korean War.

German Rheinmetall is taking ammunition plants out of mothballs to produce ammo for Ukraine.  The company is also opening a joint venture tank plant that produces Leopard 2 tanks in Ukraine.   Since they are produced in Ukraine, they will not need export licenses to use them.

Turkey is also opening a drone factory in Ukraine.  It has one of the most effective air defense systems – the factory is owned by the Son-in-Law of Turkey’s President Erdogan.  It probably will not be attacked if Putin wants to improve relations with Ankara.

Meanwhile, Britain’s largest defense contractor, BAE, is dramatically increasing artillery ammunition production.

Who is Winning?

Most analysts expected more dramatic movement in Ukraine’s summer offensive.  However, war isn’t as fast as movies or analysts’ predictions.  General Patton beat the Germans in two hours in the movie ‘Patton,” but it took the Americans two years to win the victory in the field.  It took the overwhelming power of the US, British, and Canadian Armies to break out of the Normandybeachhead a month after the D Day invasion.

War is slow, especially when it is a war of attrition, fought in trenches and minefields.  Air superiority, which is a key component of NATO tactical doctrine, will not be available for Ukraine until they get F-16s and the pilots who can fly them.

The Russians have effective defenses in depth and counterattack whenever it is prudent.  This is especially true in the northeastern front, where the Russians attack and gain ground, only to see the Ukrainians counterattack and regain some ground days later.

In and around Bakhmut, the Ukrainians are slowly gaining ground.

In Zaporizhzhia, the Ukrainians are slowly advancing through Russian defenses.  The serious problems the Russians are having are indicated by the fact that Putin sacked Major General Popov because he asked for time to rest and refit his units.

Ukrainian missile units are targeting Russian ammunition and fuel depots that were once out of range of Ukrainian missiles.  The British Storm Shadow missiles are hitting Russian logistic hubs.  Since the Russians rely on rail lines through Donbas to support their units, in the West, it will have a big impact on units in and around Crimea.

One way we know that Ukraine is slowly advancing is that there are satellites designed to detect forest fires.  In addition to detecting forest fires, they can detect the heat of artillery fire, which gives observers and intelligence analysts a way to track the movement of the front line.

The Ukrainians are advancing slowly – but they are on the offensive.  Ukraine still has about 9 combat battalions in reserve.  When and if the Russian defensive line breaks, these mechanized reserve units could start to move through Russian territory quickly.

The Ukrainians also have an effective guerrilla campaign in Russia.  The latest proof was the assassination of former submarine commander Stanislav Rzhitsky, who used the Russian submarine Krasnodar to fire missiles against Ukraine.

Clearly, the disagreements at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania are not impacting the Ukrainian war effort.  There remains general agreement on major goals – Ukraine membership in NATO and continuing material support for Ukraine.  With Turkey’s change of heart, it seems that Sweden will finally join NATO later this year.

It seems the internal NATO differences on Ukraine are not going to affect the continued support of the war efforts until the popular discontents in key NATO countries start to be displayed in the streets.

It’s been a week since the Wagner Group, led by Prighozin, mutinied against Putin and the Russian Army.  However, there are a lot of questions that remain unanswered.  We will try to look at what happened and what it means for Putin, Prighozin, Russia, and the Ukraine War.

What Happened?

Although there are many possible reasons, the simplest is the most likely.  Prighozin overestimated his strength within the Russian Army.  Although there was talk about 25,000 Wagner soldiers marching on Moscow, there appear to be fewer – about 8,000.  And, while Prighozin counted on Russian units joining him, they remained out of the fray, while ground attack helicopters loyal to Putin carried out attacks that seriously damaged the Wagner column.  It became obvious that Wagner couldn’t capture Moscow, so Prighozin decided to cut his losses and make a deal.

Putin was willing to make a deal because defeating the Wagner group in the suburbs of Moscow would have taken days and the Ukrainian Army would have taken advantage of the internecine war to gain ground.  In addition, Putin, who was uncertain of the loyalty of his forces, was afraid that a protracted fight might encourage his forces to defect to Wagner.

Although both got some of what they wanted, the problem has just been pushed down the road.

Will this be the only mutiny?

If history is our guide, no.  In WWI, a war that was much like the Ukraine War in terms of fighting in trenches and the large loss of human lives, there were many mutinies

The French were being led by General Nevelle, who thought an all-out offensive would push the Germans back.  What the French got was a bloody battle that caused many units to refuse to fight.  That led the French to replace him with Petain, who stopped the bloody attacks and improved the treatment of French soldiers.

However, the number of mutinies increased during Petain’s first few months, and he finally had to resort to stern measures against mutineers before the back of the mutinies was broken.

Putin will have the same problems.  Although he just gave the Russian Army a 10.5% raise in pay, there are still malcontents in the Russian Army.  They will only need a hint of weakness by Putin to start another mutiny – one that will not have to travel hundreds of kilometers to Moscow.

Although many think Prighozin is the sole mutineer, there are thousands who are tired of the war, who will willingly help start another mutiny.  That’s one reason Putin is purging the military now.

What is the Future of the Wagner Group Now?

Putin will do everything to defang the Wagner Group in Russia, Belarus, and the Third World nations it is operating in.  Expect assassinations, transfers of officers, and arrests in the coming months.

The arrests will not be limited to Wagner people.  Putin is already purging Russian generals like General Surovikin who appeared to be aware of the mutiny.  Surovikin frequently disagreed with the Russian defense ministry on tactics and strategy in Ukraine.

Oligarchs, who sat on the sidelines or who are expected to have tacitly supported the mutiny may very well be arrested or assassinated.

Has this Purge hurt the Russian Army?

Yes.  Stalin instituted a series of purges in the 1930s that eviscerated the Soviet Army.  25,000 Soviet officers were either executed or sent to the Soviet Gulag.  The result was that the Soviet Army was unable to defeat the Finish Army and later the German Army.  Even Soviet General Zhukov’s popularity after the war caused Stalin to strip him of his positions and relegate him to minor posts

Given the choice of a successful, popular general that can defeat the Ukrainians or a marginal general who is totally loyal to Putin, he will go for the marginal general.  This has already been seen in the last year as Putin has gone through several generals in search of a loyal, effective general.  All he has learned is that a successful general who commanded troops in Syria can’t be counted on to defeat Ukrainians.

Is the Wagner Group a threat in Belarus?

Satellite imagery shows the construction of barracks for 8,000 in Belarus.  Although it isn’t a threat to Russia, as it has limited arms, it can be a threat to Ukraine if it decides to invade Ukraine’s northern border.  That is unlikely as the Belarus/Ukraine border is primarily swampland and unsuitable for quick military thrusts.

Given the increasing tension between Russia and NATO, the Wagner Group could be used if there is an outbreak of hostilities in the future.  The Wagner Group, as currently constituted, could reinforce the Belarus Army in order to prevent an invasion.  It also borders Lithuania, which has no border with Russia.  It is also close to Kaliningrad, which is Russian, but an enclave surrounded by Poland, Lithuania, and the Baltic.

Putin has made it clear that he would like Belarus to rejoin the Russian Federation.  The Wagner Group could be used (if necessary) in a coup against Belarus President Lukashenko – along with the Russians already inside Belarus.

Did Ukraine take advantage of the Mutiny?

It took time to arrange an offensive and the mutiny was less than a day long.  However, it seems that the Ukrainians are gaining some minor grounds in the last few days.  This could be due to confusion and poor morale caused by the mutiny.

It appears that Putin’s aggressive defense against the Wagner convoy caused serious casualties amongst the ground attack helicopters, which have been critical to stopping Ukrainian units trying to pierce the Russian minefields.  If the Russian helicopters took loses, were damaged, or need major maintenance before moving back to the Ukrainian front, it may take some days before they are fully operational.

Without ground attack helicopters supporting the Russian ground units, it will be easier for the Ukraine counter offensive to gain ground.

Remember, this is a slow, grinding battle that must pierce several defensive lines before the Ukrainian army can make use of its mobility.

Does the Wagner Group pose a long-term threat to Putin and Russia?

Yes.  Putin is weaker now than before.  However, the internal security services like the FSB, which is the successor agency of the KGB, and the Russian military, pose a larger long-term threat.

Expect Putin to rearrange the security services surrounding Moscow.  The First Guards Tank Army, which has been the primary security force around Moscow, will likely be downgraded and most of the unit will be sent to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the FSB may take advantage of the waning power of Putin to leverage a greater role in the control of Russia, while reducing the power of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Some western analysts suggest that the real future of Putin depends on his ability to balance these two groups.

This was a good week as far as US/Indian relations go.  Indian Prime Minister Modi was well received by Americans, especially the Indian expatriate community.   There was also a 58-point joint statement that highlighted agreements, including removing tariffs on US agricultural products.  There were also agreements on space and technology.

One of the US goals was to increase military cooperation to wean India from its decade’s long reliance on Russian defense equipment, even though India fields some NATO fighter aircraft and US helicopters and cargo aircraft.

Although there were agreements to sell India US manufactured drones and cooperate in jet fighter engine development, much of the defense agreement was vague.  The US Navy now has access to Indian ports for repairs and will join in joint military exercises.

The US, however, will remain careful about sharing American technology.  India has been accused of stealing US technology andthere is the fear that US technology will end up in the hands of India’s decades long partner, Russia.

But how valuable is this new cooperation?  Although India dominates the vast Indian Ocean, it remains a backwater in global geopolitics.  It borders and patrols the Arabian Sea, which is a major petroleum supply route.  It also borders the western end of the Strait of Malacca, which is a major sea route.

But much of the current concern is with China, a historic opponent of India, and China’s attempt to claim control of the South China Sea.  This has encouraged India, once the major “nonaligned” nation during the Cold War to increase its cooperation with other nations.

India has joined the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which includes India, the US, Japan, and Australia.  Part of that agreement allows for logistical support of US and other Quad nations, either for repairs or fresh food for naval vessels. The US is also selling the US made armed drone MQ-9B.

Access to Indian shipyards will be important.  In the past, unforeseen ship damage had to be repaired in the US.  Now some ship repair can be done in India, which can save months in lost deployment time.

India’s navy isn’t a major force but must be respected.  It has two aircraft carriers, which have been bedeviled by problems.  The INS Vikrant took over 18 years to build and has yet to finish its flight trials.

The INS Vikramaditya is a former Soviet carrier that has been modified.

The Indian Navy also has destroyers and frigates to operate independently or as part of a carrier strike force.

The Indian Navy is a blue water navy that has deployed in the Mediterranean and the South China Sea.  It also patrols against pirates around the Arabian Sea and Strait of Malacca.

The Indian Navy also holds naval exercises with other nations.  It carried out exercises with the British aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth in 2021.  In addition to working with the UK carrier strike group, it operated alongside American and Dutch warships.  It also operated with an American Marine fighter Attack Squadron.  Exercises included anti-submarine, anti-air, and anti-surface drills.

One Indian weapon system that hasn’t been mentioned but is of note is its nuclear arsenal.  In addition to land based nuclear weapons, India has the Arihant class nuclear powered ballistic missile submarine.  India holds the distinction of being the first built by a country other than one of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.

Although the Indian Navy doesn’t have the “sea legs” (only 45 days at sea) of American or British ships, its ability to deploy throughout the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean, and the South China Sea, makes it an ideal back up to the more capable navies of the US, UK, and Japan in case of hostilities.

One advantage of the Indian Navy is that it follows the Western Design concept of more survival ships.  This means that Indian ships can survive better in hostile conditions than lighter Chinese ships.

The future of the India – US defense alliance

US – Indian relations have gone through ups and downs over the seven decades of Indian independence.  During the premiership of Indira Gandhi, India grew closer to the Soviet Union, and she supported the USSR frequently in the UN.

Later Prime Ministers were more consolatory towards the US.  Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi made it a policy to become more independent of the USSR and hosted American President Reagan in 1985.

That means much depends on future Indian Prime Ministers and American politicians’ tolerance of Indian suppression of government opponents.

Despite the euphoria surrounding the Modi visit, many are voicing concern about India’s failure to support human rights.

India ranks below Pakistan and Afghanistan as far as press freedom goes.  Modi also carried out pogroms against Muslims in Gujarat when he oversaw Guujarat.   He is also up for reelection within a year and his party lost in by elections in Karnataka.

There is also growing violence in Manipur.

No wonder Modi wanted smooth publicity to visit the US.

Although the agreements between the US and India make long term friendship more possible, the future is not guaranteed.  India relies on Russia for fuel made cheap by the embargo on Russian oil.  Russia has also made India’s economy reliant on Russia by not always requiring “hard currencies” in international trade.

The future of the relationship depends on the elections in India.  Will the US president turn a blind eye to India’s human rightsviolations?  Will the Indian PM try to improve India’s HR record?

Will India continue to buy Russian weapons, even though they have shown some flaws in the Ukraine War.  Will India turn towards the West as Russia is falling behind in arms deliveries to India?

There are a lot of variables in the future of US-Indian relations.

In 1992, Clinton advisor James Carville said, “It’s the economy stupid,” meaning that voters vote their pocketbooks rather other issues,

That doesn’t seem to be true today.  The leading contender for the Republican nomination and the leader in presidential polls against Biden is Donald Trump.  And instead of hurting him, the indictments against him have only improved his standing in the polls against Republican contenders for the nomination.

What Democrats thought would fatally cripple Trump has seemed to make him stronger.

At a recent speech in London, leading US pollster Frank Luntz surveyed the election landscape and noted he was wrong in 2021 to declare that Trump would never be president again.

“I now must acknowledge that it is a distinct possibility that Donald Trump could be elected president.  I did not believe that one a year ago,” he said.

I did not believe that the search of Mar-a-Lago would be handled so badly, I did not believe that the indictment of him in New York would be handled so badly.”

I did not believe that his opponents would be so inept as to strengthen him and the combination of all those makes him now viable, not just in the Republican primary, but in the general election.”

Clearly Democrats and leaders in the White House, FBI, and the DOJ thought that an indicted Trump would lose support and either withdraw or be defeated.

This week, Premise Polling shows Trump beating Biden, while DeSantis would lose to Biden.  This polling, taken after Trump’s arrest, shows Trump narrowly beating Biden 44% to 43%.  Although the polling was close, if Trump wins the popular vote, he will win the Electoral College by one of the biggest margins in American history.

DeSantis loses to Trump 54% to 34%.  He lost to Biden 36% to 41%.

Surprisingly, Trump is stronger with independents and Republican women than DeSantis.

Other Republican challengers are all in single digits.

Clearly, this wasn’t in the Democrats plans.  The plan was to so weaken Trump that he would lose to another primary candidate or win the nomination but be so weakened by the indictments that he would lose to Biden.  Biden, meantime, would not be seriously challenged in the primaries thanks to a cooperative Democratic National Committee.

But the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry. Biden’s dementia is getting obviously worse, and Vice President Harris has clearly shown that she is unable to be a competent alternative.

The Democratic bench is also weak.  President Kennedy’s nephew, Robert Kennedy, is currently garnering about 20% of the polls, but is considered a Democratic “Trump.”  He opposes vaccines and speaks out against the power of the deep state.  Even the Kennedy family opposes him.  However, keep an eye on Kennedy as a potential dark horse.

The most likely Democratic alternative is California Governor Newsom.  And, although California’s and Newsom’s progressive agendas are attractive to progressives, California’s current problems will hinder him in a national election.

The other problem is that most Americans have lost faith in the FBI, so no matter what comes out at Trump’s trial most Americans will not believe it – especially given the FBI corruption in the “Russiagate” affair.

According to a new Harvard CAPS Harris poll, 70% of respondents said that they were either very or somewhat concerned about interference by the FBI or other intelligence agencies in elections.  71% said recent changes had not done enough to prevent further interference and that “wide ranging” reform was still required.  This attitude could very well mean an acquittal or hung jury for Trump.

There is also the fact that the Department of Justice is trying a novel legal theory against Trump, which can lead the case to be thrown out or overturned by an appeals court.

The indictment is based on holding military documents and obstructing the government from taking them.  Prosecutors are using a clause in the Espionage Act about failure to turn over national defense information.  However, since the burden of proof is so high in the Espionage Act, they are using this one clause to prosecute Trump under the Presidential Records Act, which deals with official versus private presidential documents.

But the Presidential Records Act isn’t a criminal statute.  And, in 2012, the courts held in a case against Clinton that it was up to the president to determine which documents were private and which documents were property of the government.

Former Federal Prosecutor Will Scharf called it a “totally novel legal issue.”  “It’s never been tested before.  The Espionage Act has never been used to prosecute in this sort of a setting.”

A lawyer tweeted, “Promise that theory won’t fly with the Supreme Court.”

Another problem is the timing of the trial. Although defendants are promised a speedy trial, the issues are deeper.  The Constitutional right to a speedy trial is to benefit defendants, not the government prosecutor Jack Smith who wants a speedy trial. The defendants usually delay the trial to prepare for it.  There are also motions over legal issues, discovery, and the intent of the Espionage Act.  One legal challenge is the compelled testimony of former Trump lawyers.  There may also be motions for an expedited review of the case in appeal.

If there is any delay, which is nearly guaranteed, the Department of Justice follows a rule that says trials should not be held 90 days before an election if it impacts an election.  The first primary will be held in February 2024, while the trial must start in November.  If not, the trial must wait until after the election.

Of course, the DOJ can waive the rule, which would reinforce the opinion of half the electorate that the charges are political.

Of course, if a Republican president is elected, Trump could likely be pardoned.

In any case, this will be a prolonged trial.  The chance is that a verdict will not come out until after the election.  And there could never be a verdict if a Republican President is elected.

(Some polls came after preparing this draft suggest that Trump is losing some support)

After months of waiting, it seems as if the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun…probably.  The Ukrainian Defense Ministry doesn’t make announcements dealing with operations, so we can only guess based on the pace of operations.

At this point, it seems that Ukraine has begun preliminary operations.  There have been attacks all along the border between the two combatants, which resemble probing attacks.  It’s likely that the Ukrainians are looking for a weak point where they can break through Russian defenses.  At that time, Ukraine will probably commit their reserves, which contain much of their NATO heavy equipment.

One reason why it seems that Ukraine is waiting to commit its heavy units is that many of Ukraine’s heaviest brigades have NATO heavy equipment. Although the 47th Assault Brigade has joined battle with American M-2 armored vehicles, the 82nd Air Assault Brigade with its British Challenger tanks and American Stryker vehicles have yet to be committed.

There does appear to be some damaged or destroyed NATO equipment, including Leopard tanks and American Bradley vehicles.  However, this doesn’t reflect the total number of Ukrainian forces engaged.  Ukraine has reportedly formed 12 brigades – 9 outfitted with NATO equipment and three using Ukrainian equipment.  Most of this has yet to be committed.

Of course, the “Fog of battle,” applies, so there are many questions currently.  Satellite imagery shows the Ukrainians making slow progress, but there are reports that the Russians have caused many Ukrainian casualties; not unexpected given the fact that Russia has had months to bolster their defensive positions.

Although there is much ambiguity about Ukrainian goals currently, it is reasonable to assume that the Crimea is the biggest goal.  But taking Crimea will be a very hard task if history is any judgement.

The battlefront can be divided into three fronts: the Eastern Front – the Donetsk area, the Southern Front – the Zaporizhia area, and the Kherson area in the West.

The Kherson area was where the Kakhovka Dam was destroyed.  Satellite imagery indicates the explosions came from within the dam, in Russian controlled territory.  The blast flooded the Dnieper River, which prevents Ukraine attacks on the western front and allows the Russians to shift troops to the Southern and Eastern fronts.

The southern front, which includes Zaporizhia, is where the heaviest fighting seems to be occurring.  It represents the best route to cut off the land bridge to Crimea and the Russians have spent months building layers of defensive positions.  They have also fielded some of their best units in this theater.

Currently, these Russian units have successfully limited Ukraine advances and have destroyed some NATO equipment.  However, it’s important to realize that these Russian units are better than Russian units defending other areas.

The Eastern Front – the Donetsk area, has seen the best Ukraine advances – up to two kilometers in the Bakhmut area.  This theater has several lines of communications that support the continued Russian occupation of Crimea.

The results of the battle have been mixed.  The Russians in some areas have shown more doctrinal discipline, which has led to more Ukraine casualties.

The future remains uncertain.  The strategy of attacking several areas along the battlefront improves a chance to find a weak point, at the price of more casualties.  And, even if Ukraine does blow a hole in the Russian front, there is no guarantee that Russian air power and artillery won’t stop the advance and seal the break.  The Ukraine forces then find themselves with the same narrow lines of communications that Russia is currently tasked with defending.

Remember that taking the Crimea is a major effort with no guarantees of succeeding.  In World War Two, it took the Nazis eight months to take the Soviet naval base of Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula.  The conquest took massive amounts of artillery shells, which the Ukraine is having problems supplying.

It’s important to remember that France, Britain, and Turkey were unable to capture Crimea in the Crimean War.

It is more likely that Ukraine may capture part of the peninsula, which could be a bargaining chip in negotiations and political disaster for Putin.

It is more likely that Ukraine could retake much of the area that Russia took over a year ago.  They could also cut water supplies off and force Russia to supply their garrison through cargo aircraft, naval vessels, and the Kerch Strait Bridge that connects Russia and Crimea.

Other Factors Impacting the Counter Offensive

There are several factors that could impact the offensive.  The first is additional supplies from NATO.  The Ukraine will lose tanks, and will NATO countries be able or willing to replace losses?

Will NATO start supplying fighter aircraft like the F-16?  Ukrainian pilots have proven to be able to master the F-16 and the only question is if they can hold their own against Russian fighters.

There is also the question of sending soldiers to Ukraine – something popular with Poland and the Baltic nations.  If the battlefront once again resembles a World War One network of trenches, Russia could try to bleed the Ukrainian Army – which could force some European nations to send some forces, probably technical teams instead of conventional infantry.

Even now there are NATO special forces training Ukrainian troops.

However, it may be best for Russia to remember that France saw its population decline during WWI, only to be on the winning side.  Russia could win the demographic war, only to lose the military war.

There is also the question of artillery ammunition.  Ukraine has used artillery to great effect in recent battles like Bakhmut, where the Ukrainians turned a potential Russian victory into a Russian pyrrhic victory.  With artillery able to fire many rounds a minute, an engagement of a few days can quickly wipe out artillery shell reserves.  Even with artillery reserves, the supply of high-tech weapon ammunition is even more questionable as contracts must be made and some of the electronics isn’t being produced now.

At this point, the Ukrainian counter offensive is still up in the air.  A victory may not be enough to force Putin to come to the negotiating table.  But it could regain much of what Ukraine lost over a year ago.

We will have to see.

Next week, on May 11, America may be heading to an immigration crisis that has never been seen in the US, despite the unauthorized immigration floods of the past two decades.

One stark way to look at it is that every day, the equivalent of one army division of people will flood the US southern border.  Currently, about 8,000 illegal immigrants are crossing the border every day.  Next week, it may surge to 14,000.

The new flood is due to the expiration of Title 42, which tried to limit border crossings due to the Covid epidemic.

The new situation is so important that even Democrats are warning about the crisis.  Jeh Johnson, who served as Homeland Security Secretary under Obama, said Biden’s plan to monitor, process, and release the immigrants is not feasible as there is expected to be chaos once Title 42 is removed.

The Biden Administration has made it clear they do not plan on focusing or deterring the influx of immigrants.  Rather they plan to absorb the unauthorized immigrants and process them faster.

“When you have people coming across our southern border in such numbers, even with the additional resources we have now, it’s simply not feasible to keep track of them all.  And the backlog in cases just grows and grows, and communities along the southern border are forced to absorb these larger numbers,” Johnson said.

Johnson once considered 1,000 unauthorized immigrants crossing a day a crisis as they strained border towns.  With 8 to 14 thousand entering, they are not only straining border towns, but cities thousand miles away.

Texas has started transferring immigrants already processed by the Customs and Border Patrol.  These new migrants are being transported to New York, Chicago, Washington DC, and Philadelphia.

Ironically, these cities, which once said they welcomed migrants are complaining that they too are seeing their services being overloaded by this influx of migrants.  Outgoing Democratic Mayor Lori Lightfoot sent a letter to Texas Governor Abbot asking him to stop sending any more unauthorized immigrants to her city.

“We simply have no more shelters, spaces, or resources to accommodate an increase of individuals at this level,” Lightfoot said.  Ironically Chicago once called itself a “sanctuary city” and refused to cooperate with federal officials in deporting unauthorized immigrants.

Texas Governor Abbot responded by writing, “As the mayor of a self-described sanctuary city, it’s ironic to hear you complain about Chicago’s struggle to deal with a few thousand illegal immigrants, which is a fraction of the record high numbers we deal with in Texas on a regular basis.”

Abbot is restarting the bus trips to Chicago this week.  He is also asking Lightfoot to call on the Biden Administration “to do its job.”

Other northern mayors like New York City are also finding it hard to cope with the migrant influx.

Deadly Influx

Anti immigrant’s hawks in the US are claiming that “this flood of migrants isn’t simply people who are looking for work and a better way of life.  The migration is controlled by the Mexican drug cartels.  Migrants, called “mules,” carry loads of drugs across the border”.

They also point to the Caterpillar Training Center just south of Tucson, Arizona was the scene of a drug gang gun fight when the site was closed for a weekend.

The President of the National Border Patrol Council, Brandon Judd, has said that when Title 42 is lifted, the drug cartels will have complete control over the border.

“Once Title 42 goes away and the explosion happens, they’re going to control our entire southwest border,” Judd said.  “When they do that, that’s when [the cartels] are going to be able to bring in all their products, such as fentanyl, the dangerous drugs, the criminal aliens, and the aliens from special interest countries.  All of that is going to go up and it’s going to be Americans that are going to pay for it.

Why do Politicians let this happen?

Although many Americans, including those of Hispanic descent, want strong border controls, the politicians in Washington DC don’t do anything about it.

Some blame political donors, of both parties, who find it in their interest to have cheap illegal workers, who can drive down wages.

Then, there are some who see the inability to manage the migrant crisis as the opening of a new revolution.

Anti immigrants are spreading fear and accuse pro immigrants that they intend to overload the welfare system, so that it would destroy the American economic system, creating chaos and violence in the street – leading eventually to revolution.

Usually announcing that you are running for president requires a lot of fanfare.  The presidential hopeful usually goes to his old hometown to make the announcement; followed by a day full of rallies in critical states like Iowa and New Hampshire.

This isn’t the Biden Strategy.  This week President Biden announced that he was running for reelection- although few noticed it because it came as a video sent out at 6:30 am.   And, instead of a positive note about lower gas prices, foreign policy issues, domestic situation, and a reduced risk of war – a necessity for an incumbent president, the ad opened with riots and protests and the message that a vote for Biden was a vote for freedom, while his opponent was a dangerous radical.

There was no mention that the US military was unable to rescue many Americans from Sudan.  Nor did he mention the higher gas prices and America’s new reliance on foreign oil. There was no mention about inflation, a disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the unpopularity he is suffering in most polls.

How does he think he can beat Trump if his polling numbers are worse than Trump’s and he doesn’t want to talk about his accomplishments?

The Biden Strategy

Biden has a hard road to hoe.  Polls show that most Americans do not want Biden to run again (70%).  46% of Democrats have negative feelings about Biden.  Most Americans also think Biden is suffering from dementia.

So, how are Biden’s handlers planning on winning the nomination?

The answer is to rig the primary process with the help of the Democratic National Committee.  Instead of following the traditional schedule of Iowa holding the first caucuses and New Hampshire the first primary (where Biden did poorly) the first primary is South Carolina, which gave Biden a big win in 2020.  Pro Biden states of Georgia, Nevada and Michigan will have their primaries within that first week.  That should give Biden the momentum to win the nomination.

There will not be any Democratic primary debates where Biden can have one of his senile moments.

Biden’s team is also counting on a bloody Republican presidential primary battle.  However, that may not come to pass.  The Trump/DeSantis battle is fading as DeSantis’s support is eroding and there may not be the bitter feelings that will keep Republican voters away from the polls.

Another advantage for Biden is that the Democratic challengers to the president aren’t strong.

One candidate does have some name recognition – Robert F. Kennedy Jr. the nephew of President John F Kennedy and the son of assassinated Senator Robert Kennedy.

For decades, the Democrats have wanted another Kennedy at the top of the ballot.  However, they now have a chance, and they are avoiding RFK Jr. like the plague, partially because of his public campaign against vaccines as being dangerous.  Although he has a message that is reminiscent of JFK, which speaks of American greatness and freedom, he is disliked by the Democratic leadership (and even the Kennedy clan).  Like Tulsi Gabbard, he is too far outside the modern progressive Democratic mainstream.

The Democratic leadership doesn’t like RFK Jr., but he is gaining traction amongst many regular Democrats who don’t like Biden’s agenda.  A Fox News poll this week showed RFK Jr. with 19% of Democrats.  That’s not much, but it can grow into a serious challenge if Biden stumbles.

In many ways, he sounds like Trump.  When he announced he was running he vowed to “end the corrupt merger of state and corporate power.”

Despite the Democratic leadership preferring Biden, RFK Jr. has the name and message that could wound Biden in the primaries.  He is the candidate to keep an eye on.

Marianne Williamson.  She is 70 years old and an author and spiritual advisor.  She is the first to declare her candidacy this year.  She ran in 2020 but dropped out before the Iowa Caucasus.   She is seen as a very long shot.

Biden’s general election strategy is basically a rerun of 2020 – stay out of sight and paint Trump and MAGA Republicans as a threat to America.  Expect to see loads of videos of the January 6^th demonstrations.

Don’t expect Vice President Harris to be taken off the ticket.  As Biden ages, there will be more pressure to invoke the 25^th Amendment and make Harris the acting president.  Obviously, an ambitious VP would be likely to do that since the 25^th Amendment gives the VP most of the power to unseat the president.

Since Biden (or his handlers) see that Harris is unlikely to make such a move, she remains the best choice for Biden to remain president if he is reelected.

The Trump strategy

Although regularly hit with negative news and indictments, Trump is heading towards another nomination.  Unlike Biden, he crosses the country on campaign trips, where he finds enthusiastic crowds although not like previous run.

While he campaigns, he gains in popularity polls and endorsements from influential Republican politicians.

Polls show that Trump is doing better than Biden – although that isn’t saying much.  An NBC poll showed that 70% of voters said Biden shouldn’t run.  60% of voters said that Trump should not run.

Trump does have a record to run on that compares well with Biden.  Trump’s lower inflation, lower gas prices, and a desire not to wage wars abroad, versus Biden’s declining respect for America, senility, military failures in Afghanistan, the unpopular LGBT+ agenda, and the radical anti-gun agenda.

There’s also the growing unease with the conflict in Ukraine.

Trump’s biggest problem is his brashness, which goes down well for a New York businessman, but poorly for a presidential candidate.  He also has a field of challengers that are solid contenders with good political credentials.

Challengers

Nikki Halley.  Haley is the former governor of South Carolina and US ambassador to the UN.  She was the first to throw her hat into the ring.

Haley is the daughter of Indian immigrants and at 51 is one of the new GOP generation of politicians.

Although Haley has crossed swords with Trump, she would be a good addition to the ticket as a VP choice.

Vivek Ramaswamy.  He is a former biotech executive and worth about $600 million.  He is a long shot, but comes from Ohio, which is a critical state for Republicans.

Larry Elder.  He is a conservative talk show host.  His best credential is that he was a candidate in the 2021 recall effort to oust California Governor Newsome.  He received the most votes to replace Newsome, but Newsome retained his post.

Asa Hutchinson.  Former two term governor of Arkansas.  While in Congress, he was a manager for Clinton’s impeachment.

Hutchinson has said that a Trump nomination is “the worst scenario.”  That makes him a long shot with the Trump supporters who control the party.

Ron DeSantis.  The Florida governor is considered the best chance to take the nomination from Trump.  However, he has not done well in the last few months.  Although he has managed to push several pieces of conservative legislation through the legislature, several Florida politicians have endorsed Trump and DeSantis’ polling numbers against Trump have fallen. In a head-to-head matchup with Trump, he trails the former president by 33%.

DeSantis hasn’t declared yet that he would have to quit as governor according to Florida law.  Consequently, he may decide to wait until 2028 to take a shot at the White House. He is well financed and might jump into the race if Trump campaign faltered.

The 2024 Election

If the 2024 election is between Biden and Trump, expect an election that’s much like 2020.  Biden will stay out of sight and send out surrogates who will paint Trump as a dangerous radical.  That message will be repeated by the national media.

Trump will try to moderate his message so those who are wary about another Biden term will feel more comfortable with Trump.  He is likely to pick a woman as a VP nominee as there are many potential female Republicans who will boost his chances.

The electoral battlefield remains the same.  Trump will try to pick up some states that he lost like Arizona, which has the second highest gasoline prices in the nation under a Democratic governor.  There is also Pennsylvania, which is facing growing violence.  Virginia drifted back towards the Republicans in the year off elections.

Americans are downbeat about the direction of the US.  An NBC poll taken this year shows 71% of Americans believe America is on the wrong track.  That usually means the incumbent is in trouble.  Unless Biden and his team can tame inflation and high gas prices, along with erasing questions about his mental capability, Trump will have a good chance to return to the White House.

The recent hemorrhage of secret American documents was certainly a crisis for American foreign policy.  It showed the lack of faith in Ukraine’s final victory.  It showed that the US spied on its allies as well as its enemies.  And it gave insight into American pressure on some of its allies to help Ukraine.

Everyone was willing to put their spin on this American intelligence fiasco.  Russian bloggers changed some of the documents to show that the Ukrainians were losing ten soldiers to every Russian killed.  Ukraine used the information to show infighting inside the Russian government.  The Washington Post, referred to the group that the leaker belonged to as, “United by their mutual love of guns, military gear, and God.”

The latest report is that the leaker was a 21-year-old member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard.  Of course, the question is how a lowly airman from a second-tier military unit hundreds of miles from Washington DC managed to get his hands on such sensitive information.

It’s likely that the commander of the Air National Guard unit will be relieved within days.  He had probably been briefed by Pentagon officials along with other National Guard commanders and brought some classified information back home with him.

There is also the question of why an Air National Guard unit had to be briefed on all this information.  This goes back to the fact that the US gives too many people access to classified information.

Classified information is given to authorized people based on their “need to know.”  Obviously, the lowest rank in the Air Force doesn’t need to know what was in the documents.  And one wonders why even the commander of a second-rate unit needs to know the latest intelligence – at least until his command is scheduled to deploy to the European theater.

So far about 50 documents have surfaced among 100 documents reported to have been leaked.  Many concerns geopolitical subjects.  They were first circulated on Discord.  They are Department of Defense documents and include reports from the CIA and National Geospatial Intelligence Agency.  They show how the US gathers intelligence and provides analysis on regional political developments around the world.

Before taking any part of the document leak as truth, it’s important to take any information with a grain of salt.  Here are a few:

One document that appears to be doctored shows Russian casualties at about 17,000.  The same document shows Ukrainian casualties at about 170,000.  Those figures are very suspicious.  In the type of attrition warfare taking place now, the Russians are probably losing five soldiers to one Ukrainian soldier since the Russians are on the offensive.

One piece of leaked information was that the Ukrainians were likely to run out of surface to air missiles by the end of May.  This assumes that these missiles are the heart of Ukraine’s air defense.  However, these missiles are out-of-date S300 missiles, and they haven’t been the real reason for the Russian’s failure to gain air superiority.

Although the Russians dramatically outnumber the Ukrainians in fighter aircraft, they have failed to gain air superiority, which is considered the key to winning a modern war. Russian aircraft take off, fire their long-range at Ukrainian targets and head back to their base.  Meanwhile, Ukrainian pilots are learning advanced NATO air combat techniques.

The reports also give munitions delivery information, which will be important for Russian leadership, who need to plan for any Ukrainian offensive. The analysis seems pessimistic on Ukraine’s chances for victory.

The documents show how that the US has penetrated the Russian leadership and has given the Ukrainians detailed information on Russian attacks.  It also showed American efforts to get munitions from Turkey, Israel, and South Korea.  According to reports, the US has promised to help Israel against Iran if they give Ukraine ammunition.

Leaked documents show that Serbia, which is neutral in the Ukraine war, has shipped munitions to Ukraine.

Although the leaked documents indicate Ukraine is weak, investigations show that much of that information was falsified by Russian Telegram users, not the Russian intelligence service.

What are the consequences of the publication?

The damage has already been done.  American allies are upset that the US was spying on them – although the allies are likely spying on the US too.  France has been especially aggressive in industrial espionage in the US.

The Ukraine has been forced to change some of its military plans.

Both Israel and South Korea have said the documents are false.

The impact will likely be short therm.

Additional leaked information

Here’s a summary of some leaked information.

The US doesn’t expect any Ukraine peace talks until 2024.  The DIA says a loss of territory by the Russians and unsustainable losses by the Russians will not lead to peace talks as Putin is determined to win.  The report also says that China hasn’t shown signs of sending munitions to Russia.

Although denied by the Serbians, a document shows that Serbia has the political will and military ability to arm Ukraine.

The US and its allies have 100 Special Forces on the ground in Ukraine.  The Pentagon has finally admitted that there are Special Forces in Ukraine but said they “aren’t fighting on the battlefield.”  Knowing how carefully the White House words these statements, this may mean they are behind Ukrainian lines advising on the use of long-range weapons.  There could also be US contractors, who aren’t considered US soldiers by the Pentagon.

The spying on South Korea’s government has softened their willingness to sell artillery shells to the US to resupply US stocks.  By selling to the US to restock their inventory, it allows South Korea to say they are not involved in the Ukraine War.

Ukrainian agents are responsible for the sabotage behind lines in Belarus and Russia.  They have hit oil facilities, air bases, and civilian infrastructure.

Egypt may be sending rockets and artillery shells to Russia.

Canada’s natural gas pipelines may be targeted by hackers, who are close to Russia.

The Pentagon published a paper titled “Israel: Pathways to Providing Lethal Aid to Ukraine.”  It looks at making third party sales to Ukraine, expanding sales if Russia starts to boost arms sales to Iran, US support for Israeli operations in Iran, and if Russia starts firing at Israeli aircraft in Syria.

Undoubtedly more information will come out.  Keep an eye on the news coming out from the Massachusetts Air National Guard.  There are more senior people involved in this.

While many eyes were on the courthouse in Manhattan, New York and the indictment of Trump, many others were focused on Brussels, where Finland officially joined NATO with the raising of the Finnish flag in front of NATO Headquarters.

The event was full of irony.  Ever since WWI, Finland had maintained its neutrality so as not to upset Russia, who had controlled Finland as part of the Russian Empire and had fought the invading Russian Army in the early days of WWII.  Now Finland sees the potential threat of Russia invading Ukraine.

“Finland has today become a member of the defense alliance NATO.  The era of military non-alignment in our history has come to an end,” the Finnish president said.  “A new era begins.”

The president continued, “NATO membership strengthens our international position and room for maneuver.  As a partner, we have long actively participated in NATO activities.  In the future, Finland will make a contribution to NATO’s collective deterrence and defense.”

Finland’s addition to NATO dramatically changes the strategic situation in Europe.  The NATO border with Russia has doubled, which forces Russia to at least put military forces on the border at a time when its military is stretched with the War in Ukraine.

As a neutral country that has relied on its own military to repel invaders, the Finnish Army is more powerful than many think.  Although the Finnish armed forces number 23,000, thanks to universal military conscription, that number can be boosted to 280,000.  And, though it is neutral, some Finnish soldiers have combat experience in Afghanistan.

Finland’s military is classed as the 51^st most powerful in the world.  It’s artillery forces outnumber France and Germany combined.  Its ammunition production by Lapua is considered the best and its small arms ammunition is the ammunition of choice by NATO snipers.

Finland uses the German Leopard 2, which is considered one of the best Main Battle Tanks.  They also use the HIMARS missiles, which have been used successfully by the Ukrainians to hit Russian targets.  Their military spending meets NATO standards of 2% of GDP.

Finland’s top commander, General Timo Kivinen said, “On a per capita basis, we have probably the most firepower in Europe.”

Finland’s air force has 55 F-18s and in two years, they will start receiving F-35s.  Finland also has the world’s 12^th largest navy, which along with Sweden and the NATO nations Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Germany, and Denmark, make the Baltic Sea a NATO lake.

With the Russian Black Sea fleet unable to sortie its ships into the Mediterranean and the Russian Baltic fleet unable to exit the Baltic, Russian naval power must rely on Murmansk to sail into the Atlantic.  However, both Norway and Finland are close to that strategic Russian naval base and could hinder any movement from there during a conflict.

The status of Swedish NATO membership is still open, but many think the situation will change after Turkish elections in May.  In the meantime, they will continue to hold military exercises with NATO nations and will only make the northern flank of NATO much more powerful, especially in anti-submarine warfare in the Baltic.

NATO has changed in terms of its key members.  During the Cold War, France and Germany were the major military powers on the European continent.  Now, the northern flank of NATO is strengthened by Poland, which is the major tank and armored NATO force outside the US.  Only the US and Greece are spending more, in terms of GDP, in defense.  The Baltic states, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are also spending more than 2% of GDP, although their small economies force them to rely upon larger NATO countries to protect their borders.

Finnish NATO membership and the push to spend more on NATO defense has displeased Russia, who has seen its plan to discourage NATO membership of its neighbors to fail.  Its most serious response was to announce that it was deploying tactical missiles that can be used either tactically or with nuclear warheads to Belarus.

Russian Presidential spokesman Dimitry Peskov said, “the expansion of NATO is an infringement on our security and Russia’s national interests.”  He did separate Finnish membership in NATO from how they saw a potential Ukraine NATO membership.

Peskov said, “the situation with Finland, of course, is radically different from the situation with Ukraine…Finland has never had anti-Russian rhetoric, and we have no disputes with Finland.”

“With Ukraine, the situation is the opposite and potentially more dangerous,” Peskov continued.

The Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said they have shipped Russian aircraft and Iskander missiles capable of delivering tactical nuclear strikes to Belarus.

He said,” Several of Belarus ground attack aircraft received the ability to strike enemy targets with nuclear weapons…Besides, Iskander-M operational tactical missile was handed over to the armed forces of Belarus. It can use both conventional and nuclear missiles.”

How big is the threat posed by Belarus?  It appears that some aircraft and missiles have been moved into Belarus and made nuclear capable.  However, there is no information that the nuclear warheads or bombs have been stored in Belarus or that they have been given any authority to use them.

It is more likely that the nuclear weapons remain in Russia, under close Russian guard.  They are more of a potential threat if NATO invades Belarus, which is unlikely under current circumstances.

They are more likely to be deployed if NATO decides to invade the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, which is separated from Russia and is nestled between Poland and Lithuania.

In the meantime, it appears that NATO will continue to supply munitions and more modern weapons systems.  Poland and Slovakia have sent former Russian aircraft to Ukraine to bolster the Ukrainian air force.  The US has also admitted that 2 Ukrainian pilots have been sent to Arizona to learn how to use the F-16.  Although the US insists that the pilots aren’t receiving any “flight time” on the F-16, they may be training on obsolete fighter aircraft owned by the American defense company Textron Aviation.

According to Air & Space Forces Magazine, Textron has the largest civilian supersonic fleet.  That includes 63 Mirage F1 aircraft.  Flight Global says on their website that the Mirage F1 will be used for “air combat training and aggressor squadron purposes.”  Some of the aircraft are at Luke Air Force Base, Arizona

Clearly, the escalation of the Ukrainian War is continuing.  Aircraft, once “off the table” are likely to find their way onto the battlefield soon.  Russia, which once tried to stop NATO expansion eastward now finds itself in a weaker position than before.